Forex Today: US dollar better bid heading into the US mid-term elections

Forex today in Asia was a quiet affair today, with most majors sticking to tight trading ranges, as the investors trade with caution in the run up to the US mid-term elections showdown later on Tuesday. The US dollar traded on the front against its major rivals, but the bulls lacked vigor amid increased odds of the Democratic Party winning over the House of Representatives.  

Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the Aussie traded better bid after the RBA upped the 2018 and 2019 GDP forecasts a little. Meanwhile, the Kiwi also advanced on the back of repositioning. The USD/JPY held onto gains near 113.30 levels, as mixed Asian equities capped further upside.

On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks traded on the back foot, as US grants temporary oil waivers to China and India from the Iran sanctions. Gold prices on Comex were little changed near USD 1232 while copper futures on Comex attempted a tepid bounce to 2.760 region amid ongoing US-China trade deal talks.

Main Topics in Asia

EU to propose Irish border alternative, UK cabinet pushing defiant stance - Reuters

Ireland: UK cannot unilaterally scrap border backstop - Reuters

Trump believes that the US will make deal with China's President Xi

China Commerce Ministry to impose anti-dumping tariffs on acrylic fiber from South Korea starting Nov 7

Japan’s Seko: Japan readies for resuming Iran oil imports - Reuters

Gold supported by bullish 5-week SMA ahead of US elections

RBA keeps cash rate steady at 1.50%, Aussie little changed

RBA: GDP growth revised up a little in 2018, 2019

China Vice President Qishan: China ready for US talks, sees no winner in trade war - Reuters

Dollar index holds above 38.2% Fib ahead of the US midterm elections

Key Focus Ahead

Despite the releases of the second-tier macro news from both sides of the Atlantic, the fx markets will be driven by the political headlines, with the key focus likely on the Brexit deal-related headlines and the US mid-term Congressional elections.

Amongst the economic releases, the final services PMI reports for the Euro area economies will start trickling in from 0815 GMT, followed by the Eurozone PPI data due at 10000 GMT. The speech by the ECB policymaker Lautenschlaeger is scheduled at 1200 GMT.

In the NA session, the Canadian building permits and US JOLTS job openings data will be reported among other minority reports from the US. New Zealand’s GDT price index and API crude stocks data will be also eyed for fresh trading impetus ahead of the NZ employment data slated for release at 2145 GMT.

EUR/USD: frozen ahead of the US midterm elections, falling wedge sighted on the daily

The EUR/USD is flatlined around 1.14 and may revisit the recent low of 1.13 if the Republicans secure a majority in both chambers. To start with, the markets are pricing a split Congress - Democrats to take House and Republicans to retain the Senate.

GBP/USD looking to hold onto 1.3050 ahead of Tuesday's politics-heavy news flow

Tuesday is a political day for the markets, with little functional data on the economic calendar, but a steady stream of Brexit headlines in the UK and US mid-term election results due later in the day, and the GBP/USD sees plenty of opportunities to experience broader market volatility.

Dollar Index: Big Reversal at 97.00, Midterm Elections on Tap

The conventional wisdom is that a split government would be less likely to pass meaningful economic policies, perhaps putting more pressure on the Fed to keep the economy healthy as we head into 2019 and 2020, potentially hurting the greenback. 

Mid-Terms: Democrats' chances hit record highs in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, USD could suffer

With growing chances for the opposition party, the US Dollar may start retreating before results are known. It is important to stress that the level of uncertainty is quite high.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bull flag sighted on hourly chart

Gold has charted a bull flag - a continuation pattern - on the hourly chart. A move above the upper edge of the flag, currently at $1,234.30, would signal a revival of the rally from the $1,212 and would open up upside toward $1,260 (target as per the measured height method).