- The US Mid-Term elections are due tomorrow and the tension is mounting.
- The closely watched models on FiveThirtyEight show record chances for Democrats.
- The US Dollar could suffer already ahead of the results.
Americans go to the polls tomorrow, November 6th and the tension in markets is growing. While Brexit headlines try to steal the show, the outcome of the House elections is causing a lot of speculation.
Recent updates on Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website point to record chances for Democrats to gain control of the House of Representatives. According to the Classic Model, the probability of a Democratic win has risen to 87.5%, the highest on record.
The probability ranged around 84-86$ earlier. According to the model, the average gain for Democrats is 39 seats, above the 23 needed. This model considers fundraising, past voting, historical trends, etc.
The bare-bones "Lite" model looks only at polls and also here we see a record probability of 80%, the highest so far.
USD
Markets liked Trump's tax cuts and deregulation and all this will come to a halt if Democrats win the House. They are also likely to open investigations into Trump's business dealings. The US Dollar will likely suffer if Democrats win and jump if Republicans retain the House.
With growing chances for the opposition party, the US Dollar may start retreating before results are known. It is important to stress that the level of uncertainty is quite high.
More: What the US mid-term elections mean for currencies: everything you need to know
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD keeps the red below 0.6400 as Middle East war fears mount
AUD/USD is keeping heavy losses below 0.6400, as risk-aversion persists following the news that Israel retaliated with missile strikes on a site in Iran. Fears of the Israel-Iran strife translating into a wider regional conflict are weighing on the higher-yielding Aussie Dollar.
USD/JPY recovers above 154.00 despite Israel-Iran escalation
USD/JPY is recovering ground above 154.00 after falling hard on confirmation of reports of an Israeli missile strike on Iran, implying that an open conflict is underway and could only spread into a wider Middle East war. Safe-haven Japanese Yen jumped, helped by BoJ Governor Ueda's comments.
Gold price pares gains below $2,400, geopolitical risks lend support
Gold price is paring gains to trade back below $2,400 early Friday, Iran's downplaying of Israel's attack has paused the Gold price rally but the upside remains supported amid mounting fears over a potential wider Middle East regional conflict.
WTI surges to $85.00 amid Israel-Iran tensions
Western Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.00 on Friday. The black gold gains traction on the day amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran after a US official confirmed that Israeli missiles had hit a site in Iran.
Dogwifhat price pumps 5% ahead of possible Coinbase effect
Dogwifhat price recorded an uptick on Thursday, going as far as to outperform its peers in the meme coins space. Second only to Bonk Inu, WIF token’s show of strength was not just influenced by Bitcoin price reclaiming above $63,000.