Forex Today: Risk mood improves to start week, US Dollar remains weak
Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 14:
The market sentiment improves at the beginning of the week as investors assess the latest headlines surrounding the US-China trade conflict. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases on Monday. Several Federal Reserve policymakers will be delivering speeches during the American trading hours.
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -3.92% | -2.11% | -2.12% | -2.98% | -4.51% | -5.19% | -4.83% | |
| EUR | 3.92% | 2.18% | 2.52% | 1.61% | -0.66% | -0.70% | -0.34% | |
| GBP | 2.11% | -2.18% | -0.96% | -0.56% | -2.78% | -2.82% | -2.46% | |
| JPY | 2.12% | -2.52% | 0.96% | -0.85% | -1.49% | -1.93% | -2.43% | |
| CAD | 2.98% | -1.61% | 0.56% | 0.85% | -1.91% | -2.27% | -2.17% | |
| AUD | 4.51% | 0.66% | 2.78% | 1.49% | 1.91% | -0.03% | 0.33% | |
| NZD | 5.19% | 0.70% | 2.82% | 1.93% | 2.27% | 0.03% | 0.37% | |
| CHF | 4.83% | 0.34% | 2.46% | 2.43% | 2.17% | -0.33% | -0.37% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US President Donald Trump's administration granted some technology imports, including smartphones, computers, laptops and disc drives, exemptions from the steep reciprocal tariffs imposed on China. These products will reportedly be subject to the 20% existing tariffs on China, which were related to the US fentanyl crisis, and be excluded from the additional 125%. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an ABC News interview on Sunday that these products, alongside semiconductors, will face separate new levies within the next two months. Following this development, US stock index futures trade decisively higher in the European morning on Monday. At the time of press, Nasdaq Futures were up 1.7% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, lost about 3% last week and touched its lowest level since April 2022 near 99.00. Following a technical correction heading into the weekend, the USD Index struggles to hold its ground on Monday and stays in negative territory below 99.30.
During the Asian trading hours, the data from China showed that China's trade surplus narrowed to $102.64 billion in March from $170.51 billion in February. On a yearly basis, Exports grew by 13.5%, while Imports declined by 4.3% in March. After gaining more than 4% in the pervious week, AUD/USD continues to push higher and was last seen rising about 0.65% on the day at 0.6330.
GBP/USD benefits from the persistent selling pressure surrounding the USD and trades above 1.3150 in the European morning. The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish February employment data on Tuesday.
After losing more than 2% last week, USD/JPY stays under bearish pressure and trades near 142.50 to start the European session. Earlier in the day, the data from Japan showed that Industrial Production expanded by 2.3% on a monthly basis in February, missing the market expectation for an increase of 2.5%.
Gold gained more than 6% in the previous week and touched a new all-time high at $3,245 on Friday. Following a bearish opening to the new week, Gold reversed its traction and test the record-high before going into a consolidation phase. At the time of press, XAU/USD was trading marginally lower on the day near $3,230.
EUR/USD holds its ground and trades in positive territory near 1.1400 in the European morning after rising more than 3.5% last week. Eurostat will publish February Industrial Production data on Tuesday.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
