Forex Today: Pound Sterling benefits from Q2 GDP, US Dollar awaits mid-tier data
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 14:
Pound Sterling stays resilient against its rivals early Thursday, supported by the upbeat data releases. In the second half of the day, producer inflation data for July and weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be featured in the US economic calendar.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.38% | -1.00% | -0.75% | 0.10% | -0.28% | -0.01% | -0.29% | |
| EUR | 0.38% | -0.63% | -0.36% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.32% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 1.00% | 0.63% | 0.22% | 1.12% | 0.74% | 0.96% | 0.73% | |
| JPY | 0.75% | 0.36% | -0.22% | 0.88% | 0.51% | 0.81% | 0.61% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.49% | -1.12% | -0.88% | -0.36% | -0.16% | -0.40% | |
| AUD | 0.28% | -0.11% | -0.74% | -0.51% | 0.36% | 0.22% | 0.01% | |
| NZD | 0.01% | -0.32% | -0.96% | -0.81% | 0.16% | -0.22% | -0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.29% | -0.10% | -0.73% | -0.61% | 0.40% | -0.01% | 0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Thursday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 1.2% in the second quarter. This reading followed the 1.3% growth recorded in the first quarter and came in better than the market expectation of 1%. Other data from the UK showed that Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production increased by 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, on a monthly basis in June. GBP/USD edges higher in the European morning on Thursday and trades at its highest level in a month, slightly below 1.3600.
The data from Australia showed in the Asian session that the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.2% in July from 4.3%, matching the market expectation. In this period, Full-Time Employment increase by 60.5K, while Part-Time Employment declined by 35.9K. AUD/USD holds steady at around 0.6550 in the early European session.
The US Dollar (USD) Index registered small losses on Wednesday as markets remained risk-positive in the second half of the day. Early Thursday, the USD Index struggles to gain traction and fluctuates below 98.00. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to rise 2.5% on a yearly basis in July, following the 2.3% increase reported in June.
EUR/USD closed in positive territory for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.1700 in the European session.
Gold extends its sideways grind slightly above $3,350 after closing marginally higher on Wednesday.
USD/JPY stays under strong bearish pressure early Thursday and trades below 146.50. In the Asian session on Friday, second-quarter GDP and June Industrial Production data from Japan will be watched closely by market participants.
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
(This story was corrected on August 14 at 07:14 GMT to say that the UK's Office for National Statistics published the GDP data on Thursday, not Tuesday).
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
