Forex Today: Mood improves to start week as US government shutdown nears end
Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 10:
US stock index futures gain traction to start the new week and the US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand as market mood improves on growing optimism about the US federal government shutdown coming to an end. In the absence of high-impact data releases, investors will keep a close eye on US politics on Monday.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.28% | -0.14% | -0.06% | 0.07% | 0.26% | 1.61% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.28% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.34% | 0.51% | 1.87% | 0.44% | |
| GBP | 0.14% | -0.12% | 0.00% | 0.21% | 0.40% | 1.76% | 0.32% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -0.27% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.29% | 1.64% | 0.34% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | -0.34% | -0.21% | -0.09% | 0.13% | 1.52% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | -0.51% | -0.40% | -0.29% | -0.13% | 1.36% | -0.08% | |
| NZD | -1.61% | -1.87% | -1.76% | -1.64% | -1.52% | -1.36% | -1.41% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | -0.44% | -0.32% | -0.34% | -0.11% | 0.08% | 1.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
After a group of centrist Democrats negotiated a deal, the US Senate has voted 60-40 on a temporary funding bill to reopen the government. The approved package will need to be passed by the House of Representatives before it's sent to US President Donald Trump to be signed. Reflecting the risk-positive market atmosphere, US stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 1.3% on the day. Meanwhile, the USD Index was virtually unchanged at 99.60.
EUR/USD holds steady slightly above 1.1550 in the European session on Monday after ending the previous week marginally higher. The European economic calendar will feature Sentix Investor Confidence data for November.
USD/JPY edges higher and trades in positive territory near 154.00 in the European morning. Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi, warned on Monday that it would be quite risky for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise the rate in December and argued that a rate hike would be more feasible in January, if the BoJ can see the economy achieving solid growth in the fiscal year of 2026. Earlier in the day, the data from Japan showed that the Leading Economic Index edged higher to 108 in September from 107.
After closing the previous week virtually unchanged, Gold gathers bullish momentum on Monday and was last seen rising nearly 2% on the day near $4,075.
GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.3150 after posting gains for three consecutive days. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the labor market data for October.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
