Forex Today: Markets stay calm to start the week full of high-tier events

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 6:

Financial markets stay relatively calm early Monday as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of this week's key events. February Retail Sales data will be featured in the European economic docket and January Factory Orders from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus later. FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell will testify on policy before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

The positive shift witnessed in risk sentiment late Friday made it difficult for the US Dollar to find demand and the US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the last day of the week in negative territory. In the European morning, the DXY moves sideways at around 104.50 and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays below 4%. US stock index futures trade modestly higher on the day, reflecting a cautious atmosphere.

EUR/USD managed to register small gains last week on the back of Friday's rebound. The pair fluctuates in a tight range at around 1.0650 early Monday. Although European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reiterated in her latest public appearance that a 50 basis points in March is highly likely, ECB policymaker Centeno said on Monday that the decision on the size of the next rate increase must be based on data. "Interest rates have risen too fast," Centeno added and argued that the ECB should not rush to conclusions very fast.

Following last week's choppy action, GBP/USD seems to have stabilized above 1.2000 early Monday. Investors keep a close eye on Brexit-related headlines.

AUD/USD is having a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction on Monday. In the Asian session on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its policy decisions. Reuters' estimate suggests that the RBA is expected to lift its key rate to 3.6% from 3.25%.

USD/JPY declined below 136.00 late Friday and closed the previous week virtually unchanged. The pair moves sideways near 135.50 early Monday.

Gold price capitalized on retreating US Treasury bond yields late last week and ended up snapping a four-week losing streak. XAU/USD holds steady above $1,850 on Monday.

Following Friday's sharp decline, Bitcoin spent the weekend in a very tight channel. BTC/USD remains quiet on Monday and was last seen trading flat on the day at around $22,400. Ethereum struggled to stage a rebound over the weekend and lost nearly 5% last week. Ethereum moves sideways near $1,550 in the European morning.

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

USD/JPY stays below 160.50 as markets assess BoJ decision

USD/JPY fluctuates in a relatively narrow range above 160.00 on Tuesday as markets assess the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise the policy rate by 25 at the June meeting. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on news coming out of the Middle East, while preparing for the critical Fed meeting.

AUD/USD trades in tight channel near 0.7050 despite hawkish RBA message

AUD/USD trades modestly lower on the day at around 0.7050 on Tuesday as markets adopt a cautious stance amid a lack of details surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the door open for possible policy tightening after leaving the interest rate unchanged, as expected, at the June meeting but failed to boost the Australian Dollar.

Gold clings to moderate gains above $4,300 following Monday's rally

Gold maintains a mildly positive tone, holding gains after rallying about 6% over the last few days. The precious metal's recovery, however, has lost steam after crossing the $4,300 line as the initial enthusiasm about the US-Iran peace deal faded, with investors moving to the sidelines in anticipation of details of the agreement and monetary policy decisions by the Fed.

Solana's rebound gains momentum as ETF inflows return

Solana (SOL) steadies at $73 after posting three consecutive green candlesticks since the weekend. The recent recovery is supported by institutional demand, with spot Exchange Traded Funds recording net inflows of $2.81 million on Monday.

Kevin Warsh opens first Fed meeting June 16 with rate hold expected

Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate in a 54-45 vote and sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair on 22 May 2026. The ceremony took place at the White House, with Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas administering the oath. The FOMC meeting on 16 and 17 June is his first as chair. The June meeting is also a quarterly projection meeting.

4.2% headline, 0.2% core: Why the Fed's next hike may be targeting the wrong problem

May's CPI put headline inflation at 4.2% on the year, up from 3.8% in April and the hottest reading since April 2023, while core prices rose just 0.2% on the month, undershooting the 0.3% consensus and halving April's pace.