Forex Today: Kiwi – a big mover in Asia, Eurozone final CPI on tap

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The US tax reform optimism induced risk-on moods extended into Asia, pushing the Treasury yields higher alongside the Asian equities. However, the US dollar failed to extend its Friday’s recovery and somewhat stabilized, as the NZD bulls benefited the most from it. The Kiwi ignored mixed NZ services PMI and consumer confidence data, as the unwinding of shorts continued heading into the NZ Q4 GDP release due later this week. The Aussie traded with mild gains on the back of slightly upbeat Australia’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) and the recent rally in copper prices. Meanwhile, the Yen remained bettered offered, despite surging Japanese exports and trade surplus.

Main topics in Asia

CME officially launches Bitcoin futures trading

The waiting is over, with Bitcoin futures now officially trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Japanese exports grew for a 12th straight month in November

Japanese exports rose for a twelfth straight month in November on the back of buoyant overseas demand and the confidence among nation’s biggest manufacturers is at an 11-year high.

Australia MYEFO: Real GDP growth to rise as the drag from mining investment diminishes

Australia Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) released today says the real GDP is seen rising as the drag from the mining investment diminishes.

PBOC raises 14-day reverse repo rate by 5 bps to 2.65%

Having raised the MLF, SLF and reverse repurchase agreements last week in a surprise move after Fed, the Chinese central bank (PBOC) raised interest rates on RR, used for open market operations by 5 basis points for the 14-day tenor on Monday.

Aus Treasurer Morrison: No real pressure on cash rate to slow housing market

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Australian treasurer Scott Morrison, speaking in a BTV interview.

Key Focus ahead

The European calendar remains data-light, as we kick-off a brand new week, with the only final CPI data to be reported ahead of the German Bundesbank monthly economic report. Meanwhile, the UK docket will see the release of the CBI industrial order expectations numbers. The NA session also sees a quiet start to a big week ahead, with the Canadian foreign securities purchases and US NAHB Housing Market Index data to be released.

EUR/USD bounces in Asia, eyes EZ CPI, US tax vote for fresh impetus

Fresh bids emerged for the EUR/USD pair near 1.1740 levels in early trades, which prompted a bounce back above the 50-DMA support-turned-resistance at 1.1750, as the bulls fight back control kicking-off a brand new week.

GBP/USD - Yield differential favors USD, bull flag on charts

GBP/USD fell sharply on Friday from 1.3448 to 1.3301 as US tax optimism strengthened the bid tone around the US dollar.

This week's key data in the US and Europe - ING

ING’s view on this week’s key data and events in the United States and the Eurozone can be found below, with the team concluding that as policy stands, they look for three 25bp interest rate increases by the Fed in 2018.

What to expect from this week's US economic data? - Nomura

The Economics Team at Nomura expects the US data over the next several weeks, including the present one, to highlight continued momentum in economic growth to close out 2017.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Dec 18
n/a	GBP 10-y Bond Auction		1.34%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)	0.2%	-0.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)	1.0%	0.9%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.5%	1.5%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%
n/a	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
11:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)	14	17
13:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities		$2.41B
13:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities		$16.81B
15:00	USD NAHB Housing Market Index	70	70
16:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction		1.32%
16:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction		1.46%
21:00	NZD Westpac consumer survey		112.4
Tuesday, Dec 19
00:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook		6.5%
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)		0.1%
00:30	AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
00:30	AUD RBA Bulletin
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)		-0.5%
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations	110.5	111.0
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate	117.5	117.5
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment	124.7	124.4
10:00	EUR Labour cost	2.0%	1.8%
10:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)	1.1%	3.1%
10:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)	0.1%	0.1%
13:30	USD Building Permits Change	-4.9%	5.9%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD rejected at 0.70 as hot US CPI revived Fed hike threat

The Aussie Dollar ends Wednesday’s session with a 0.17% loss against the US Dollar, as high US inflation sent US yields higher amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates late this month. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6971 after hitting a high above 0.7000.

USD/JPY consolidates near 158.50; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus

USD/JPY stays range-bound near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with looming intervention risks supporting the Japanese Yen and capping upside amid a softer US Dollar. However, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and the pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold remains offered below $4,100

Gold adds to the weekly bearish tone and slips back below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Wednesday. Indeed, the precious metal continues to suffer the stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields as bets for extra tightening by the Fed remain on the rise following US inflation figures.

Australia Unemployment Rate forecast to remain at 4.6% in September

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the September employment report on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian Dollar could see a big reaction to the jobs data if the numbers significantly alter market expectations for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia later this year.

Ethereum falls below $2,500 as hot CPI raises Fed hike odds

Ethereum extended its decline below $2,500 on Wednesday after a hotter-than-expected US inflation print renewed selling across the crypto market. At the time of writing, the top altcoin trades near $2,430, down 3.1% in the past 24 hours. The US Consumer Price Index for September rose 0.6% monthly, in line with market forecasts and up from a 0.4% increase in August.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?