Forex Today: Fear returns ahead of Halloween amid covid's surge, elections uncertainty


Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 30:

Markets are on the back foot again on Friday after recovering on Thursday. The ECB signaled it would act in December amid the resurgence of the virus, while US cases hit a new record. GDP releases in the eurozone and Canada, as well as speculation about the US elections, are set to dominate trading. 

EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.17 after the European Central Bank expressed concern about the impact of the virus on the economy, including a potential double-dip recession. President Christine Lagarde laid the ground for expanding the bond-buying scheme in December. 

German and French lockdowns come into effect on Friday, and other European countries are imposing restrictions. Gross Domestic Product figures for the third quarter are set to show a bounce after the bloc's economy fell by 9.7% in the second quarter. Preliminary inflation figures for October are forecast to remain downbeat around 0%. 

Eurozone Third Quarter GDP Preview: The best view may be in the rear view mirror

US Coronavirus: The US hit a new daily caseload above 83,000, pushing the weekly average to a new peak as well. The disease is most prevalent in the Upper Mid West, where several states are highly contested in the elections.

Four days until Election Day, and over 82 million – or nearly 60% of the 2016 vote count – have already cast their ballots, especially in southern states. FiveThirtyEight's model is pointing to an 89% chance of Democrat Joe Biden winning against President Donald Trump, but investors remain skeptical of polls.

The battle for the Senate, critical for fiscal stimulus, is significantly closer. Uncertainty is weighing on sentiment. 

US GDP beat estimates with a leap of 33.1% annualized in the three months ending in September, with personal consumption standing out. Personal Spending and Personal Income statistics for October are awaited on Friday. 

Gold has been on the back foot as part of the risk-off mood. 

Gold has three ways go in response to the 2020 Presidential Elections

Canada publishes GDP figures for August, which are set to show moderation in the recovery. The loonie has been on the back foot amid the downbeat mood and the fall in petrol prices. WTI Crude Oil slipped below $36. 

Apple's disappointing earnings report has also dampened the mood, The iPhone maker sold fewer phones than expected in Asia, where the economy is recovering. 

UK: Additional British regions are coming under the strictest limitations amid another record in covid cases. Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains under immense pressure to announce a nationwide lockdown. GBP/USD is battling the 1.29 level, underpinned by optimism about Brexit talks. 

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has stabilized around $13,200 after several turbulent days. 

More: How low will markets go? State of play after the covid-related fall, ahead of a huge week

 

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