|

Forex Today: Dollar starts new week on firm footing as US T-bond yields extend rally

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 18:

The greenback is gathering strength in the early hours of the European session on Monday as investors stay focused on the US Treasury bond yields in the absence of significant fundamental drivers and high-tier data releases. September Industrial Production data will be featured in the US economic docket in the second half of the day but the market mood alongside the performance of US T-bond yields is likely to continue to impact the USD's valuation. 

Earlier in the day, the data from China revealed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.2% on a quarterly basis in the second quarter after growing by 1.3% in the second quarter. This reading missed the market expectation of 0.5% and caused risk sentiment to sour during the Asian trading hours.

The US stocks futures are down between 0.1% and 0.3%, suggesting that Wall Street's main indexes are likely to open not too far away from Friday's closing level. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. In the meantime, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up nearly 2% at 1.605%.

Gold suffered heavy losses in the second half of the previous week as the precious metal remains extremely sensitive to movements in the US T-bond yields. XAU/USD is currently moving sideways in a relatively tight range around $1,770 but the pair could feel renewed bearish pressure when trading volume rises with European and American traders entering the market.

EUR/USD's recovery attempt failed to convince investors that the pair was about to reverse its direction. The European Central Bank's dovish outlook remains intact and makes it difficult for the common currency to find demand. On Monday, the pair is trading in the negative territory below 1.1600.

USD/JPY stays relatively calm after posting its strongest weekly close since March 2017 at 114.20. Rising US T-bond yields continue to fuel the pair's upside.

GBP/USD managed to close the second straight week in the positive territory and seems to have gone into a consolidation phase above 1.3700. The Bank of England's hawkish policy outlook and renewed Brexit optimism help the British pound stay resilient against the dollar.

Despite rising copper prices, the AUD/USD pair edges lower on Monday pressured by the disappointing Chinese growth data. 

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin continues to trade above $60,000 as crypto investors wait for the first Bitcoin ETF to debut in the US either on Monday or Tuesday. Ethereum stays within a touching distance of $4,000 and Ripple is fluctuating around $1.1.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD advaces beyond 1.3450 after BoE decision, US Q2 GDP

GBP/USD gains positive momentum on Thursday, surpassing 1.3450 and trading at fresh multi-week highs. The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%. The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, with the 3 dissenters favoring a rate hike. US Q2 GDP missing expectations helped the pair advance, while renewed US Dollar weakness across the FX board pushed the pair further up ahead of the monthly close.

EUR/USD confortable around 1.1530, highest in six weeks

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1530 in the American session on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs. The US Dollar is in sell-off mode, with multiple factors weighing on the American currency. Not only did the Federal Reserve vote divided to keep rates on hold on Wednesday, creating doubts about a September hike, but US Q2 GDP missed expectations. A suspected JPY intervention adds pressure on the Greenback.

Gold recovers the $4,100 level as US Dollar weakens further

Gold trades just above $4,100 amid a US Dollar sell-off. The Greenback enjoyed some near-term demand following Wednesday's post-FOMC downfall, but was unable to retain its gains. The preliminary estimate of the US Q2 GDP showed the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5%, missing the market's expectations of 2.1%.

Bank of Japan set to keep interest rates unchanged after suspected Yen intervention

Investors are turning their attention to the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy announcement on Friday, after the Japanese Yen staged a dramatic rebound during Thursday's American session. The move came amid growing speculation that Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market after USD/JPY tumbled from above 163.00 to below 158.00 within minutes.

Aave to sunset Sonic, Aptos, zkSync, Scroll reserves, affecting $98 million in supply

Aave is planning to sunset 75 low-activity reserves across its decentralized finance protocol as part of a broader effort to reduce operational, technical and economic risks across its network of deployments.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.