Forex Today: Dollar picks up bearish pace

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

What you need to take care of on Tuesday, August 2:

The greenback edged lower on Monday, although the slide pared mid-US session as Wall Street lost its earnings-inspired strength and lost some ground. Market participants remained focused on the risk of a global recession.

At the beginning of the day, China published the official NBS Manufacturing PMI, which contracted to 49 in July, worse than anticipated, while the services index came in better than expected, improving to 53.8. Also, S&P Global downwardly revised its Manufacturing PMIs for some European countries and the US.

The US July ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by less than anticipated, down from 53 in June to 52.8. A sharp drop in prices paid hints at easing inflationary pressures, but new orders also contracted, according to ISM, in line with increased risks of a recession.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note ticked lower and is currently around 2.59%, while the 2-year note yields 2.89%, unchanged for the day.

The EUR/USD pair neared the 1.0280 area again, finishing the day at 1.0255. GBP/USD extended gains beyond 1.2200, now changing hands at 1.2250. The AUD/USD pair trades above 0.7000 as market players await the RBA monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to hike rates by 50 bps, although it is unclear if they can hike by more or less.

USD/CAD surged amid lower oil prices, ending the day at 1.2845. Crude oil prices edged lower, losing roughly 4% on Monday amid fears of easing demand, following weaker than expected Chinese figures released at the beginning of the day. WTI settled at $93.80 a barrel.

Gold continued to advance, reaching an intraday high of $1,775.43 a troy ounce, trading nearby early in the Asian session.

Safe-haven currencies advanced against the greenback. USD/CHF trades around 0.9500 while USD/JPY ended the day at 131.65.

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD stays offered just above 1.1400

EUR/USD keeps the downtrend well in place for yet another day, challenging the 1.1400 contention zone on Tuesday. The continuation of the selling impulse in spot comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar, which continues to find support in the persistent effervescence surrounding the US-Iran crisis.

Middle East crisis intensifies, Gold up

Gold now seems to have embarked on a consolidative phase below the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP rebounds on rising on-chain activity

Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The Iranian war has again risen

The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.