Forex Today: Dollar, Gold find move up as coronavirus curbs NFP enthusiasm, thin liquidity expected

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 3:

Markets have stabilized as investors digest the better-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls figures, an upbeat Chinese survey and Americans enjoy a long weekend. Concerns about the surge in US coronavirus cases are keeping the safe-haven dollar and gold bid.

US Non-Farm Payrolls figures showed a leap of 4.8 million jobs, far above three million projected and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 11.1%. On the other hand, an increase in permanent layoffs and the timing of NFP surveys – from June 12, before the recent surge.

See NFP Analysis: Good, but as good as it gets, re-closing is rapidly ravage reopening gains

US coronavirus cases have hit yet another daily high above 50,000, with Florida topping 10,000 infections per day amid an increasing positive test rate. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top US epidemiologist, said that the US reopened too soon before the virus came under control and that it could mutate.

Texas has mandated face masks under certain conditions and other states also imposed restrictions. High-frequency indicators such as gasoline consumption, restaurant reservations, and foot traffic data are pointing to a significant slowdown. Weekly jobless claims for the week ending June 26 remained stubbornly high.

Investors are somewhat cheered by the Chinese Caixin Non-Manufacturing Index, which surged to 58.4 points.

Brexit talks between top negotiations have been postponed to next week amid disagreements and a "lack of divergence." On the other hand, both the EU and the UK expressed hope of reaching a "landing zone." GBP/USD is trading below 1.25 ahead of final Services Purchasing Managers' Index figures.

EUR/USD is back to its morning range of 1.12-1.1250 as European leaders have yet to agree on the EU Fund. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said a compromise can be achieved. Final services PMIs will likely show a cautious recovery.

AUD/USD is advancing after Australia's final retail sales figures for May came out at 16.9%, better than the original score.

WTI Oil is changing hands above $40, extending its upward move.

Cryptocurrencies suffered a knee-jerk sell-off late on Thursday before digital currencies found their feet. Bitcoin is hovering above $9,000 once again.

US markets will be closed for the Independence Day weekend, keeping volumes and liquidity thin later in the day.

More Non-Farm Payrolls: Immense uncertainty remains prevalent, markets may react

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

EUR/USD holds gains around 1.1800 amid renewed USD selling

EUR/USD regains positive traction and holds around 1.1800 in the European session, reversing the previous day's modest losses. The pair's uptick is sponsored by the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling, which remains induced by persistent trade-related uncertainties.

GBP/USD strengthens above 1.3500 on softer US Dollar

GBP/USD is posting moderate gains above 1.3500 in European trading on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar meets fresh supply following US President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union address and amid looming tariff uncertainty.

Gold eyes monthly top above $5,200 amid geopolitics, trade jitters

Gold buyers are back in the game, eyeing $5,200 and beyonf on Wednesday after seeing a correction from monthly highs on Tuesday. The US Dollar slips after Trump’s SOTU fails to impress and as AI-driven worries ease. Dovish Fed bets also weigh. Gold looks north so long as the key 61.8% Fibo resistance at $5,142 holds on the daily chart.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple post cautious recovery amid downside risks

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are posting a cautious recovery on Wednesday following a market correction earlier this week. BTC is approaching a key breakdown level, while ETH and XRP are rebounding from crucial support levels.

Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI boom

Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI boom, with Q4 revenue projected near $65.6–66.1 billion, nearly 70% higher year-over-year. But investors are watching cash flow, leverage, and broader AI adoption. Growth is strong, but the AI stress isn’t over.

Cosmos Hub Price Forecast: ATOM rebounds slightly, bearish outlook remains intact

Cosmos Hub (ATOM) price rebounds, trading above $2.05 at the time of writing on Wednesday, after undergoing a sharp correction since last week. Weakening on-chain and derivatives data support a bearish outlook, while technical analysis remains unfavorable.