Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 3:
Markets are relatively calm as US Election Day dawns in Europe. Trump is trailing Biden yet the battle is close in swing states. The dollar is stable, gold and oil have been edging higher and Bitcoin is on the back foot. Coronavirus cases continue rising in the northern hemisphere.
US elections: The final polls toward the US Presidential Elections are pointing to former Vice-President Joe Biden having a wide lead against President Donald Trump in national polls, but narrower in critical swing states. nearly 100 million Americans have already voted – some 72% of the total 2016 vote count.
Southern states such as Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are set to publish results rapidly, and there the former VP has a marginal advantage. He has a larger advantage in Pennsylvania – considered the tipping point state – but counting may be especially slow there.
Markets prefer a decisive result, preferably Biden winning the White House and Democrats flipping the Senate, an outcome that would enable fiscal stimulus. The second-best option is a victory for Trump. On the other side, a Biden WH and a GOP-controlled Senate could result in a small relief package. The nightmare scenario is a protracted election process that results in a contested election and a constitutional crisis.
- How three US election outcomes (and a contested result) could rock the dollar
- Gold has three ways go in response to the 2020 Presidential Elections
- 2020 US Elections: Equities in three scenarios
Coronavirus cases continue rising in the northern hemisphere and governments are waiting for recent measures to flatten the curve. EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.17.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a bitter battle to approve his new lockdown, set to enter into force on Thursday. GBP/USD has stabilized around 1.29.
AUD/USD is trading above 0.70, relatively stable after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to 0.1% as expected and announced it would expand its bond-buying scheme. RBA Governor Phillip Lowe and his colleagues said their actions would contribute to a lower exchange rate.
New Zealand publishes its jobs figures for the third quarter, which are set to show a drop in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate.
Oil prices have bounced from the lows as Hurricane Zeta knocked down production in the Gulf of Mexico. Moreover, OPEC+ countries seem keen on boosting prices.
US Factory Orders are set to show an increase in September. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index beat estimates with 59.3 points, raising expectations for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls.
Bitcoin is on the back foot after regulators in Hong Kong demand that all cryptocurrency platforms be regulated. BTC/USD is changing hands at around $13,400.
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