Forex Today: Calm before the US elections storm, gold extends recovery, Bitcoin falls

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 3:

Markets are relatively calm as US Election Day dawns in Europe. Trump is trailing Biden yet the battle is close in swing states. The dollar is stable, gold and oil have been edging higher and Bitcoin is on the back foot. Coronavirus cases continue rising in the northern hemisphere.

US elections: The final polls toward the US Presidential Elections are pointing to former Vice-President Joe Biden having a wide lead against President Donald Trump in national polls, but narrower in critical swing states. nearly 100 million Americans have already voted – some 72% of the total 2016 vote count.

Southern states such as Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are set to publish results rapidly, and there the former VP has a marginal advantage. He has a larger advantage in Pennsylvania – considered the tipping point state – but counting may be especially slow there.

See 2020 Elections: Three states traders should watch, plus places that could provide surprises

Markets prefer a decisive result, preferably Biden winning the White House and Democrats flipping the Senate, an outcome that would enable fiscal stimulus. The second-best option is a victory for Trump. On the other side, a Biden WH and a GOP-controlled Senate could result in a small relief package. The nightmare scenario is a protracted election process that results in a contested election and a constitutional crisis.

Coronavirus cases continue rising in the northern hemisphere and governments are waiting for recent measures to flatten the curve. EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.17.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a bitter battle to approve his new lockdown, set to enter into force on Thursday. GBP/USD has stabilized around 1.29.

AUD/USD is trading above 0.70, relatively stable after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to 0.1% as expected and announced it would expand its bond-buying scheme. RBA Governor Phillip Lowe and his colleagues said their actions would contribute to a lower exchange rate.

New Zealand publishes its jobs figures for the third quarter, which are set to show a drop in employment and an increase in the unemployment rate.

Oil prices have bounced from the lows as Hurricane Zeta knocked down production in the Gulf of Mexico. Moreover, OPEC+ countries seem keen on boosting prices.

US Factory Orders are set to show an increase in September. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index beat estimates with 59.3 points, raising expectations for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls.

Bitcoin is on the back foot after regulators in Hong Kong demand that all cryptocurrency platforms be regulated. BTC/USD is changing hands at around $13,400.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

AUD/USD remains above 0.7200 after China's trade data

AUD/USD sits above 0.7200 in the Asian session on Tuesday, near its highest level since May 14. The US Dollar stays under pressure as a rallying Japanese Yen outweighs support from hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical tensions. This, along with firming expectations for another RBA rate hike later this month, acts as a tailwind for the Aussie. However, mixed China trade balance data keep the pair restricted.

USD/JPY stabilizes at around 154.00 as markets assess BoJ outlook

USD/JPY fluctuates at around 154.00 in the American session on Tuesday after rebounding from the six-month low it touched below 153.00 earlier in the day. Nevertheless, the upside attempts resemble technical corrections for now as Japan's upbeat wage growth data and Q2 GDP revision cement bets on a BoJ rate hike next week and continue to support the Japanese Yen.

Gold holds around $4,400, but for how long?

Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot during American trading hours on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar (USD) remains on the defensive. Rising Oil prices and expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike weigh on the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,400 after reaching an intraday high near $4,443.

XRP ticks up as bullish derivatives, EMA support signal breakout

Ripple (XRP) is grinding upward and getting closer to a short-term breakout above $1.40 on Tuesday. This uptick follows the remittance token's defense of support at $1.38, after a short-lived attempt to breach selling pressure at $1.50 last week.

Europe in focus: September 2026

Six major net contributors demanded substantial cuts to the European Commission’s proposed 2028–2034 EU budget. Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Sweden issued a joint position on 27 August calling for the nearly €2 trillion proposal to be reduced by several hundred billion euros and rejecting additional common EU borrowing.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.