Forex Today: Aussie hit by RBA minutes, mixed China data, UK jobs, ZEW eyed

Forex Today witnessed a quiet Asian affair, with mild risk-on prevalent amid higher Asian equities, oil prices and Treasury yields. However, the Yen defended minor bids across the board amid ongoing developments surrounding Syria while gold prices traded on the back foot. The Antipodeans lost ground and extended losses following the release of dovish RBA March meeting minutes and mixed Chinese data releases.

The Kiwi emerged the weakest in Asia while the GBP/USD pair hit the highest levels since the Brexit referendum at 1.4354 amid an upbeat outlook for wages and increasing BOE rate hike expectations.

Main topics in Asia

Mexico's Guajardo: NAFTA is progressing, but doesn't expect an announcement on Thursday

Mexico's Economy Minister, Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal, is hitting wires with comments about the NAFTA talks progress, as well as concerns about economic activity following tariffs.

US delays fresh sanctions on Russia - Reuters

According to reporting by Reuters, Trump's administration has delayed new sanctions against Russia.

Deal with EU or no deal with EU: China tells US - Times

British trade negotiations with China will face “great uncertainties” if the nation fails to reach a Brexit deal, Beijing’s top diplomat in Brussels has warned, according to The Times. 

US: Russia, Syria may tamper with Douma evidence - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, the US accused Russia of interfering with international attempts to gain access to the Douma attack site of last weekend's chemical weapons strike …

China Q1 GDP steadies at 6.8 percent y/y, beats estimates

China's YoY GDP figures for the first quarter of 2018 came in at +6.8% vs +6.7% exp and 6.8% previous, with the QoQ reading for Q1 coming in at +1.4% vs +1.5% exp and +163% last.      

RBA minutes: Board agreed there was not a strong case for near-term move in policy

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) April monetary policy meeting released today showed the policymakers see little reason for a near-term move in policy. 

GBP/USD hits fresh post-Brexit referendum high at 1.4354

There is no stopping the GBP/USD freight train. The currency pair rose to 1.4354 in Asia - the highest level since June 2016. 

Key Focus ahead

Today’s EU macro calendar is expected to be a busy one, with the UK labor market report due on the cards at 0830 GMT. The UK’s average earnings data is expected to be closely eyed for fresh insights on the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate hike outlook. Also, in focus remains the ZEW economic sentiment surveys due out from Germany and the Eurozone, with weaker readings likely to cap the ongoing rally in the EUR.

In the NA session, the US housing data will be published alongside the Canadian manufacturing sales data. Meanwhile, the US industrial production data will drop at the same time the FOMC members William and Quarles will be making their respective speeches. Traders will also look forward to New Zealand’s (NZ) GDT price index data for fresh direction on the Kiwi ahead of Thursday’s NZ CPI release.

EUR/USD on solid ground as US Y-yield curve hits fresh 10.5-year low

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.2395 on Monday as the spread between the US 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield narrowed to 45.5 basis points - the lowest level since October 2007.

GBP/USD breaking new ground as it looks for 1.44 ahead of UK jobs

The focus for the London Tuesday session will be the GBP's Average Earnings being reported at 08:30 GMT. Average Earnings excluding bonuses is expected at 2.8 percent versus the previous 2.6, while earnings including bonuses is forecast at 3.0 percent compared to the previous reading of 2.8. 

Geopolitical Tension Could Be Catalyst for Gold’s Rally

Technically, the long-term technical picture appears bullish and the current geopolitical turmoil could be the catalyst needed for the next leg up.

Oil prices on track for a tumble in H2 2018 - Barclays

In an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box" late-Monday, Barclays' Head of Energy commodities research, Michael Cohen noted that he expected oil prices to remain elevated during the summer driving season, but …

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Tuesday, Apr 17
08:30
 
3.0%
2.8%
08:30
 
2.8%
2.6%
08:30
 
4.3%
4.3%
08:30
 
5.0K
9.2K
08:30
 
 
2.4%
09:00
 
88.0
90.7
09:00
 
-1.0
5.1
09:00
 
7.3
13.4
12:30
 
1.262M
1.236M
12:30
 
1.323M
1.321M Revised from 1.298M
12:30
 
0.7%
-4.1% Revised from -5.7%
12:30
 
1.9%
-7.0%
12:30
 
1.1%
-1.0%
12:30
 
 
$5.68B
12:30
 
 
$13.25B
12:55
 
 
0.3%
12:55
 
 
2.9%
13:15
 
 
13:15
 
0.3%
0.9% Revised from 1.1%
13:15
 
77.9%
77.7% Revised from 78.1%
14:00
 
 
n/a
 
 
-0.6%
15:00
 
 
15:30
 
 
1.62%
17:10
 
 

 

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