|

EUR/USD on solid ground as US Y-yield curve hits fresh 10.5-year low

  • US Treasury yield curve flattens/drops to lowest since October 2007, could hurt the USD.
  • Focus on the German Zew survey and US-German 10-year yield spread. 

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.2395 on Monday as the spread between the US 10-year treasury yield and the 2-year treasury yield narrowed to 45.5 basis points - the lowest level since October 2007.

For more than a year, the relentless flattening of the yield curve has hurt the greenback. Also, he Dec20-Mar21 Eurodollar spread has turned negative, meaning the market expects the US rate hike cycle to end in 2021. This is bad news for the USD bulls.  

However, that does not necessarily mean the EUR/USD will rally. Moreover, the 10-year US-German yield spread continues to rise in the USD-positive manner. As of writing, the spread stands at 230.6 basis points - the highest since December 2016.

So, the EUR/USD may have tough time revisiting 1.25, unless the yield spread drops in the USD-negative manner. That said, a move above 1.24 cannot be ruled out if the German Zew survey, due at 09:00 GMT, beats estimates.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

Acceptance above 1.24 (psychological hurdle) would open up upside towards 1.2476 (March 27 high) and 1.2538 (Jan. 25 high). On the downside, breach of support at 1.2356 (5-day MA) could yield a drop to 1.2327 (50-day MA) and 1.23 (psychological support).

 TREND INDEXOB/OS INDEXVOLATILY INDEX
15MBullishNeutral Expanding
1HBearishNeutral Low
4HBullishOverbought Shrinking
1DBullishNeutral Low
1WBullishNeutral Low

Author

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

More from Omkar Godbole
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD keeps range near 1.1750 ahead of German/ EU PMI data

 EUR/USD maintains its range trade at around 1.1750 in European trading on Tuesday. The pair's volatility remains low, with investors awaiting a bunch of top-tier economic data releases from Germany, Eurozone and the US. The immediate focus is on the German and Eurozone preliminary PMI data. 

GBP/USD holds steady below 1.3400 after mixed UK labor data

GBP/USD is trading around a flat line below 1.3400 in the European session on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 5.1% in the quarter to October, meeting expectations, while the pay growth cooled down sligthly in the same period, doing little to affect the Pound Sterling.

Gold bulls move to the sidelines ahead of delayed US NFP report

Gold attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and extends the overnight pullback from the $4,350 region, or the vicinity of the highest level since October 21, touched last week. The intraday downtick comes amid optimism over the Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which is seen undermining demand for the traditional safe-haven commodity. 

Sui Price Forecast: Sui slips below $1.50 as network demand and risk appetite wane

Sui remains under intense bearish pressure, extending losses by 1% at press time on Tuesday for the third straight day.

NFP preview: Complex data release will determine if Fed was right to cut rates

The long wait is over, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US will release nonfarm payrolls reports for both November and October at 1330 GMT on Tuesday. The overall NFP figure for October is expected to be -10k, however, it is expected to be influenced by a massive 130k drop in federal department workers. 

BNB Price Forecast: BNB slips below $855 as bearish on-chain signals and momentum indicators turn negative

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, continues to trade down around $855 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight decline the previous day. Bearish sentiment further strengthens as BNB’s on-chain and derivatives data show rising retail activity.