Forex Today: Aussie capped by 0.80 on RBA minutes, German ZEW eyed

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today was driven by the sentiment around the US dollar and Treasury yields, as major fx pairs eagerly awaited fresh clues from Wednesday’s Fed policy outcome. Among the Asia-pac currencies, the Yen remained near multi-week lows against its American counterpart, while the Kiwi remained strongly bid, in the wake of repositioning ahead of the NZ GDT price index and national election. Meanwhile, the Aussie rallied to test 0.80 handle on an unexpected rise seen in the Aus HPI gauge. However, the spot failed to sustain at higher levels, as the RBA minutes cautioned on rising household debt and lower price pressures.

Main topics in Asia

RBA minutes: Further rise in AUD would result in slower pickup in growth, inflation

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes from Sept 5^th monetary policy meeting is out, highlighting that a further rise in AUD could lead to slower pickup in growth and inflation.

Australia House Price Index (QoQ) dipped from previous 2.2% to 1.9%

US Senate Republicans weight $1.5 Trillion tax cuts for budget

News is crossing the wires this Tuesday morning that US Senate Republicans are considering a $1.5 trillion tax cut for a budget.

China Foreign Minister - North Korea issue must be resolved peacefully

Comments from China Foreign Minister crossing the wires via Reuters…

US Senator Gardener wants North Korea out of the UN

In a letter seen by Reuters that will be sent to ambassadors from China and 20 other countries, Republican Senator Cory Gardner, the US Senate’s East Asia subcommittee chairman, urged to cut off ties with North Korea …

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, all eyes remain on the Eurozone current account and German ZEW economic surveys, while the UK docket remains data-empty for the second straight session today. The NA session remains quite eventful, with plenty of risk events on the cards, including the Canadian manufacturing sales, NZ GDT price index, US housing and current account data.

EUR/USD: 1.2000 still on sight ahead of German ZEW?

The EUR/USD pair remained better bid in the Asian trades this Tuesday, having found some support from weaker Treasury yields, while investors eagerly await the German ZEW surveys for fresh impetus.

GBP/USD: Two-year yield spread ignores less hawkish Carney, dips to be short lived?

GBP/USD pair dropped nearly 1% on Monday to an intraday low of 1.3465 after Bank of England [BOE] Governor Mark Carney said any increases in UK interest rates in the coming months will be "gradual" and "limited".

UK PM May calls special Brexit cabinet meeting

The UK Times reported overnight that the UK PM Theresa May has called a special Brexit cabinet meeting, Livesquawk cites.

PBOC to meet Tuesday to discuss preliminary plan of big financial liberalisation measures

Reuters quoting people familiar with the matter, citing that People's Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to hold a meeting on Tuesday to discuss preliminary plan of the big financial liberalization measures.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Sep 18
18:00	CAD BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speech
20:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows	$-7.3B		$5.9B Revised from $7.7B
20:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$1.3B	$42.3B	$34.4B
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth	0.3%		0.1%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)	3.2%		3.0%
22:00	NZD Westpac consumer survey	112.4		113.4
Tuesday, Sep 19
24h	CLP Army Day
01:30	AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
01:30	AUD House Price Index (YoY)	10.2%		10.2%
01:30	AUD House Price Index (QoQ)	1.9%		2.2%
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€28.1B
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a		€22.3B	€21.2B
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment		12.5	10.0
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Current Situation		86.8	86.7
09:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)			3.4%
09:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)			-0.5%
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment		32.4	29.3
n/a	EUR 9-Month Letras Auction			-0.404%
n/a	EUR 3-Month Letras Auction			-0.449%
n/a	GBP 30-y Bond Auction			1.827%
12:00	PLN Retail Sales (YoY)		7.15%	7.10%
12:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)		6.0%	6.2%
12:00	PLN Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.85%	2.20%
12:30	USD Building Permits Change		-0.8%	-4.1%
12:30	USD Housing Starts Change		1.7%	-4.8%
12:30	USD Housing Starts (MoM)		1.175M	1.155M
12:30	USD Building Permits (MoM)		1.200M	1.223M
12:30	USD Current Account		$-115.0B	$-116.8B
12:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)			0.8%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)		2.1%	1.5%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.4%
12:30	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision		0.9%	0.9%
12:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)		-1.8%	-1.8%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			0.3%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			4.5%
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			2
13:00	RUB Unemployment Rate		5.1%	5.1%
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index			0.3%
16:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.97%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			6.181M
22:45	NZD Current Account (QoQ)		$-0.875B	$0.244B
22:45	NZD Current Account - GDP Ratio		-3.0%	-3.1%
23:50	JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance		¥404.7B	¥337.4B
23:50	JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total		¥93.9B	¥418.8B
23:50	JPY Imports (YoY)		11.8%	16.3%
23:50	JPY Exports (YoY)		14.7%	13.4%
Wednesday, Sep 20
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)			0.1%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.5%	2.3%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.2%
n/a	HUF Current Account Balance (QoQ)			1.22
07:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			14.4%
07:00	EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			4.6%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account (YoY)			€0.842B
08:00	CZK Foreign Debt			172.25B
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		1.1%	1.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		1.5%	1.5%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		0.1%	0.5%
n/a	EUR 30-y Bond Auction			1.29%
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)			13
n/a	EUR Current Account Balance			€-1.42B
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			9.9%
n/a	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.7%
13:00	CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)			-1.3%
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.48M	5.44M
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			5.888M
18:00	USD FOMC Economic Projections
18:00	USD Fed Interest Rate Decision		1.25%	1.25%
18:30	USD FOMC Press conference
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			3.8%
22:45	NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.5%
22:45	NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.5%
Thursday, Sep 21
24h	IDR Muharram
01:30	AUD RBA Bulletin
02:00	JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
02:00	JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision			-0.1%
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)			0.4%
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume			2.2%
04:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			4.8%
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			26
05:45	CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
06:00	CHF Trade Balance			3,511M
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			18,347M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			14,836M
06:30	JPY BoJ Press Conference
n/a	TRY Consumer Confidence			71.1
n/a	DKK Consumer Confidence			7.6
08:00	EUR Economic Bulletin
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals			41.587K
08:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing			£-0.76B
n/a	HKD Consumer Price Index			2%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			0.026%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.213%
09:00	NOK Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision			0.5%
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.54%
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation			0.35%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.944M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			284K
12:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		15.0	18.9
12:30	CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)			-0.5%
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)			0.4%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)			-1.1%
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$427.3B
13:30	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-1.5	-1.5
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			91B
n/a	ARS Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			0.3%
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-644.6B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥198.7B
Friday, Sep 22
24h	JPY Autumnal Equinox Day
01:30	AUD Building Permits (MoM)			-1.7%
01:30	AUD Building Permits (YoY)			-13.9%
04:00	IDR Bank Indonesia Rate			5.25%
n/a	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.4%
07:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		55.5	55.8
07:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		54.8	54.9
07:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		55.1	55.2
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite		55.9	55.8
07:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		59.0	59.3
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		53.9	53.5
07:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)			3.3%
07:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)			1.5%
08:00	EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		54.8	54.7
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		57.2	57.4
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		55.6	55.7
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			-10%
n/a	INR FX Reserves, USD			$400.73B
n/a	PLN M3 Money Supply (YoY)			5%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)			0.7%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)			0.1%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.0%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.1%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.5%	1.2%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)			0.9%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)			-0.1%
n/a	MXN Private Spending (QoQ)			0.7%
n/a	MXN Private Spending (YoY)			3.1%
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation			0.2%
n/a	MXN 1st half-month Inflation			0.31%
13:00	EUR Leading Indicator			-2.1
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI			52.8
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI			56
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			55.3
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			749
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$188K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			374.5K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$254.8K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-46.1K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-57.3K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€86.1K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$63K
Saturday, Sep 23
24h	NZD Daylight Saving Time Ends
24h	NZD New Zealand General Election

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD trims gains, back below 1.1800

EUR/USD now loses some upside momentum, returning to the area below the 1.1800 support as the Greenback manages to regain some composure following the SCOTUS-led pullback earlier in the session.

GBP/USD off highs, recedes to the sub-1.3500 area

Following earlier highs north of 1.3500 the figure, GBP/USD now faces some renewed downside pressure, revisiting the 1.3490 zone as the US Dollar manages to regain some upside impulse in the latter part of the NA session on Friday.

Gold climbs to weekly tops, approaches $5,100/oz

Gold keeps the bid tone well in place at the end of the week, now hitting fresh weekly highs and retargeting the key $5,100 mark per troy ounce. The move higher in the yellow metal comes in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and modest losses in the US Dollar.