Forex Today: AUD little changed on China PMI, UK manufacturing PMI on tap

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today witnessed a sense of calm in the Asian trades this Thursday, as the dust settles over the FOMC policy decision, with the US dollar trading modestly flat in a tight range versus its main competitors, offering little impetus to most majors. However, the Yen traded on the back foot amid a rise in Treasury yields across the curve, having shrugged off upbeat Japanese PMI report. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans traded mixed, unable to benefit from the Chinese manufacturing PMI release, which surprised markets to the upside.

Among other related markets, the Asian markets traded mixed amid a slightly hawkish Fed and higher Treasury yields while positive tone seen around the commodities’ space failed to keep the sentiment buoyed.

Main topics in Asia

Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI jumped to 4-year high in January

The headline Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 54.8 in January; the highest reading since February 2014 and up from 54.0 in December.

China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI steadies in January, but surprises positively

China's Jan Caixin manufacturing PMI came at 51.5 vs 51.3 expected and 51.5 last, with the output growth hitting fresh 13-month highs in the reported month.

China MOFCOM: China, UK to sign GBP 9bln worth of deals during PM May’s trip

China’s Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) is out with a brief statement, via Livesquawk, announcing that China and the UK are expected to sign GBP 9 billion worth of deals during the UK PM May’s trip to China.

Australian MP David Feeney resigns

The news is crossing the wires that Australian MP David Feeney, who holds dual citizenship with the UK, has resigned from parliament. Feeney's decision will prompt a by-election in his Melbourne seat in Batman.

Key Focus ahead

Thursday’s macro calendar will be dominated by a raft of Euro area final manufacturing PMI reports and the UK manufacturing PMI data, which will keep the EUR, GBP traders busy. Meanwhile, in the NA session, a series of economic releases are due on the cards from the US docket, with the main focus likely to be on the ISM manufacturing PMI and jobless claims.

EUR/USD headed back to 1.2450, EZ PMIs in the pipe

EUR/USD managed to find some support in the 1.2390 region during New York yesterday and is currently making higher lows through Tokyo. Despite the recent turnaway from the multi-year high of 1.2537…

GBP/USD - Neutral bias in options market ahead of UK Mfg. PMI

GBP/USD ran into bids at 1.3980 on Tuesday and jumped to 1.4233 yesterday, adding credence to Tuesday's bullish outside day candle and indicating scope for a break above the recent high of 1.4345.

GBPUSD: Remains very choppy and is probably best left alone right now

Sterling had a choppy session, falling to 1.4121 after EU officials rejected the City of London’s Brexit blueprint for banks before rallying strongly into the London month-end fix, reaching 1.4213 and then ending the day at 1.4190.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Feb 01
00:30	KRW Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI	50.7		49.9
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI	54.8	54.4	54.4
00:30	AUD Building Permits (YoY)	-5.5%	11.5%	18.1% Revised from 17.1%
00:30	AUD Building Permits (MoM)	-20.0%	-8.0%	12.6% Revised from 11.7%
00:30	AUD Import Price Index (QoQ)	2.0%	-0.8%	-1.6%
00:30	AUD Export Price Index (QoQ)	2.8%	-8.0%	-3.0%
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI	51.5	51.3	51.5 Revised from 51.7
04:00	IDR Core Inflation (YoY)			2.95%
04:00	IDR Inflation (YoY)			3.61%
04:00	IDR Inflation (MoM)			0.71%
05:30	AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)		-8.9%	-5.9%
06:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing			59.1
06:00	RUB HSBC Manufacturing PMI			52
06:45	CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m)		2	-2
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)		2.5%	2.6%
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)		0.2%	0.6%
07:30	SEK Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM)			60.4
08:00	PLN Purchasing Manager Index			55
08:00	HUF Purchasing Manager Index			60
08:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		55.7	55.8
08:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)		1.5%	-0.2%
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			7.5%
08:30	CZK Markit PMI			59.8
08:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index		64.0	65.2
08:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		57.5	57.4
08:50	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		58.1	58.1
08:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		61.2	61.2
09:00	TRY Exports			$13.6B
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			53.1
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			9.4%
09:00	EUR Unemployment			378.7K
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		59.6	59.6
09:30	GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.5	56.3
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.525%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			-0.005%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.45%
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			6,121.05B
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.79%
11:00	BRL Industrial Output (YoY)			4.7%
11:00	BRL Industrial Output (MoM)			0.2%
12:00	BRL HSBC PMI Manufacturing			52.4
12:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)			32.423K
13:00	ZAR Total New Vehicle Sales			40.636
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$442.8B
13:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.928M	1.937M
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		238K	233K
13:30	USD Nonfarm Productivity		1%	3%
13:30	USD Unit Labor Costs		0.8%	-0.2%
14:30	CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI		54.8	54.7
14:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		54.9	55.5
15:00	USD ISM Prices Paid		68	69
15:00	USD ISM Manufacturing PMI		58.8	59.3 Revised from 59.7
15:00	USD Construction Spending (MoM)		0.4%	0.8%
15:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change		-102B	-288B
20:00	PEN Trade balance
20:00	ARS Tax Revenue (MoM)			235.21B
20:30	USD Total Vehicle Sales		17.2M	17.9M
21:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			10.8%
21:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			8%
23:00	KRW Current Account Balance			5.67B
23:50	JPY Monetary Base (YoY)		11.0%	11.2%
Friday, Feb 02
00:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			103.2
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
00:30	AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)		1.2%	1.6%
07:00	BRL Fipe's IPC Inflation			0.55%
08:00	HUF Trade Balance			€718M
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a			87.08K
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a			2.4%
09:30	GBP PMI Construction		52.6	52.2
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			0.3%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)			1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.9%
10:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)		3.2%	2.8%
10:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.6%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			11.1%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$414.78B
12:00	CZK Budget Balance			-6.15B
12:00	RON Interest rate decision			2%
13:00	RUB Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY)			1.8%
13:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.5	34.5
13:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)		2.6%	2.5%
13:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		175K	148K
13:30	USD Unemployment Rate		4.1%	4.1%
13:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
13:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate		62.8%	62.7%
14:45	USD ISM NY index - Business Conditions			56.3
15:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		95.0	94.4
15:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		0.6%	1.3%
18:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			759
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$166.5K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$214.7K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			716.7K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£33K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-122.9K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€144.7K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$16.7K
21:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate			2.5%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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