Forecasting the Coming Week: Markets maintain focus on inflation


Another positive week saw the Greenback reclaim the area beyond the 104.00 hurdle, advancing modestly on a weekly basis against the backdrop of the mixed performance in US yields and Fedspeak supporting a tighter-for-longer Fed’s stance.

Stronger-than-expected NFP readings lent support to the Greenback at the end of the week. The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is due on April 9, seconded by the Inflation Rate, Wholesale Inventories, and FOMC Minutes, all expected on April 10. On the next day, Producer Prices are due, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment will close the week on April 12.

EUR/USD managed to reclaim the area above 1.0800, mostly on the back of Dollar weakness and risk appetite trends in the first part of the week. Germany’s Balance of Trade results are due on April 8, followed by the ECB meeting on April 11, and the final German Inflation Rate on April 12.

GBP/USD ended Friday’s session on the defensive, coming under pressure in the second half of the week on the back of the late bounce in the Greenback. The UK docket will see the BRC Retail Sales Monitor on April 9 ahead of GDP readings, Balance of Trade, Construction Output, and Industrial and Manufacturing Production, all due on April 12.

USD/JPY maintained its consolidation range below the 152.00 region once again this past week, always amidst persistent FX intervention fears. On April 8, the Eco Watchers Survey is due, along with Consumer Confidence on April 9. Additionally, Bank Lending figures and Producer Prices are expected on April 10, while Foreign Bond Investment and final Industrial Production are due on April 11 and April 12, respectively.

In quite a volatile week, AUD/USD revisited the area above 0.6600 the figure, although it ran out of some upside impetus towards the end of the week. On April 8, Home Loans are due ahead of the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index on April 9. Additionally, consumer inflation expectations come on April 11.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

  • BoE’s Breeden speaks on April 8.
  • Fed’s Kashkari speak on April 9.
  • Fed’s Goolsbee is due to speak on April 10.
  • Fed’s Williams, Collins and Bostic speak on April 11 along with BoE’s Greene.
  • BoE’s Greene, Fed’s Bostic and Daly all speak on April 12.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

  • The BSP meets on April 8 (unch)
  • The RBNZ, the BoC and the BoT meet on April 10 (unch).
  • The ECB will decide on rates on April 11 (unch).
  • The BoK meets on April 12 (unch).
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