FOMC Preview: Median dot to rise 50bp to a new peak of 5-5.25% – Goldman Sachs

Despite witnessing a sharp retreat in the hawkish Fed bets, Goldman Sachs (GS) defends its forecast of a median peak rate 5.00 to 5.25%.

The US bank initially stated, “Aside from a widely expected 50bp rate hike, the main event at the December FOMC meeting is likely to be an increase in the projected peak for the funds rate in 2023,” before adding that they expect the median dot to rise 50bp to a new peak of 5-5.25%, in line with their own forecast for Fed policy next year.

GS also stated that aside from the increase in the terminal rate, we do not expect major changes at the December meeting.

Key quotes

At some point the FOMC statement will likely be revised to say that ‘further’ rather than ‘ongoing’ rate hikes are appropriate, but not yet.

The economic projections are likely to show a bit less growth next year, but a broadly similar outlook.

And the dot plot is likely to show slightly larger cuts beyond 2023 from the new higher peak.

Also read: Federal Reserve Preview: How Powell may drain the Dollar of any dot-related gains