“We expect the dot plot to migrate lower, but still with one hike later this year. QT details could be announced at the March meeting.”
“Based on recent speeches, we believe that at least half of the dots will have migrated lower, reflecting FOMC members' reduced inclination to hike rates, with the median down to one hike this year (from two in December) and another hike in 2020 (unchanged from December).”
“Market sentiment has brightened and the FOMC may decide to keep the announcement about the details of the end of quantitative tightening (QT) for a rainy day, but some details could also be announced as early as next week.”
“Our baseline continues to be a QT tapering starting in Q3 and QT ending in Q4, with excess reserves around USD 1,000bn. It will be market-negative if the Fed announces that excess reserves will continue to drop after the end of QT.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.