Fed terminal rate to reach range of 5.25-5.50% by May meeting – TDS

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Previewing this week's upcoming events from the US, TD Securities analysts said that they expect the minutes of the FOMC's December policy meeting shed additional light on the Fed's policy outlook for 2023.

Job creation likely gained momentum in December

"Note that the Committee signalled expectations of a substantially higher terminal rate for 2023 despite implementing a downshift in the pace of rate increases to 50bp at the December meeting. We are of the view that the terminal rate will reach a range of 5.25-5.50% by the May FOMC meeting."

"Job creation likely gained momentum in December, with payrolls strengthening at the close of the year in the latest indication of still tight US labor-market conditions. The UE rate likely fell as well to 3.6%, while we expect wage growth to remain high at 0.4% m/m after accelerating to 0.6% in Nov. Separately, we look for the ISM services index to have slowed back to October levels."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

EUR/USD weakens below 1.1700 as Middle East tensions drive US Dollar strength

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.1685, the lowest since late January, during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar gathers strength against the Euro as escalating tensions in the Middle East boost safe-haven currencies. The preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices from the Eurozone will be published later on Tuesday.

GBP/USD hits new yearly lows near 1.3300

GBP/USD adds to the recent bearish tone, approaching to the key 1.3300 support to reach fresh YTD troughs against the backdrop of the robust performance of the US Dollar. Indeed, Cable’s decline comes amid the firm demand for the safe-haven space in the wake of the US and Israel attacks to Iran.

Gold defends bids as US-Iran war continues to fuel safe-haven flows

Gold retains positive bias for the fifth consecutive day on Tuesday as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin safe-haven assets. However, a bullish US Dollar keeps the bullion below its highest level since late January, set on Monday, warranting caution before positioning for any further appreciation.