Fed terminal rate to reach range of 5.25-5.50% by May meeting – TDS

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

Previewing this week's upcoming events from the US, TD Securities analysts said that they expect the minutes of the FOMC's December policy meeting shed additional light on the Fed's policy outlook for 2023.

Job creation likely gained momentum in December

"Note that the Committee signalled expectations of a substantially higher terminal rate for 2023 despite implementing a downshift in the pace of rate increases to 50bp at the December meeting. We are of the view that the terminal rate will reach a range of 5.25-5.50% by the May FOMC meeting."

"Job creation likely gained momentum in December, with payrolls strengthening at the close of the year in the latest indication of still tight US labor-market conditions. The UE rate likely fell as well to 3.6%, while we expect wage growth to remain high at 0.4% m/m after accelerating to 0.6% in Nov. Separately, we look for the ISM services index to have slowed back to October levels."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

GBP/USD weakens below 1.3250 on UK political risks, BoE repricing

The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3245 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Traders await the UK political developments, focusing on potential leadership by Andy Burnham and adherence to existing fiscal rules. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak later in the day. On Thursday, all eyes will be on the US jobs data for June.

EUR/USD declines to near 1.1400 as softer German inflation undercuts ECB hike bets

The EUR/USD pair loses momentum to near 1.1410 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday, pressured by receding bets for aggressive tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). Traders will take more cues from the preliminary reading of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices from the Eurozone and US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index report, which are due later in the day.

Gold's path of least resistance remains to downside ahead of Warsh

Gold comes under renewed selling pressure early Wednesday and gives up $4,000 yet again. The US Dollar stands tall on surging USD/JPY, Mideast woes and hawkish Fed bets. Gold remains poised to crack November 2025 lows near $3,930 amid bearish technicals.

Bitcoin drops near $58K as ETF outflows surge, downside risks persist

Bitcoin could see a short-term relief from heavy selling pressure as quarter-end portfolio rebalancing could potentially revive spot BTC exchange-traded funds inflows, according to a K33 report on Tuesday.

Why a hawkish Bank of Japan could trigger the next Bitcoin sell-off

The Japanese Yen hits a 40-year low of 162.00 against the US Dollar, raising concerns about intervention or additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. BoJ may sell US Treasuries to buy back Yen, potentially pushing US bond yields higher and making Bitcoin less attractive to investors.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.