“The Fed meeting tonight will likely not lead to a decision on tapering, but a lot of technical issues are on the table, which makes the meeting super interesting anyway. Here is what to watch,” notes Andreas Steno Larsen, Chief Global FX/FI Strategist at Nordea.
Key quotes
“On USD liquidity: Liquidity has already effectively peaked as the 5 bps hike to the ON RRP facility incentivized further usage of the facility. We may be in for an additional 200bn USD in liquidity added from the drawdown of the TGA (US Treasury is forced to spend cash from the liquidity buffer due to the debt ceiling) just this week.”
“On the Fed funds rate: The effective fed funds rate prints at 10 bps, which is still 2.5 bps below the mid-point, so there is absolutely no reason to think that the Fed regrets hiking the ON RPP and IOER rates by 5 bps before summer.”
“On QE: The Fed has recently started “stealth-twisting” it’s QE program with an increasing WAM of the SOMA-portfolio. The increasing WAM of the SOMA-portfolio could be an early sign that the Fed intends to maturity-sugarcoat a tapering process that arrives EARLIER than anticipated.”
“On inflation: It is still fairly easy for Powell to explain most of the recent inflation surge away as transitory since it is driven by only a few components such as used cars (due to chip shortage), transport costs (a re-opening base-effect) and energy prices. Expect the word "bottle-neck" to be used a lot tonight.”
Related reads
Fed Interest Rate Decision Preview: The horns of an inflation dilemma
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD favours extra retracements in the short term
AUD/USD kept the negative stance well in place and briefly broke below the key 0.6400 support to clinch a new low for the year on the back of the strong dollar and mixed results from the Chinese docket.
EUR/USD now shifts its attention to 1.0500
The ongoing upward momentum of the Greenback prompted EUR/USD to lose more ground, hitting new lows for 2024 around 1.0600, driven by the significant divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB.
Gold ascends but remains shy of testing $2,400 amid hawkish Fed remarks
Gold prices edged higher late in North American session, gaining 0.22% following a hawkish tilt by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Economic data from the United States was mixed, though Monday’s Retail Sales report and Powell’s remarks kept US Treasury yields higher, capping the yellow metal’s advance.
Bitcoin price outlook amid increased demand and speculation pre-halving
Bitcoin price is edging lower as markets count only days to the halving. Nevertheless, the dump has not shaken the faith of large holders as they continue to cling to their holding even after a month of steady dumps.
UK CPI inflation data ahead: Sterling hovering north of key support
Following today's mixed bag of employment and wages data, today’s attention is directed to the March UK CPI inflation release. Both headline and core measures have surprised to the downside in the previous two releases and are expected to demonstrate further evidence of disinflation.