EU's gas storage targets are under pressure – Rabobank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Europe continues to face high energy prices due to gas supply concerns, global trade tensions, and low wind levels. Gas prices have averaged €50/MWh so far this year, with German baseload power prices at €122/MWh, the highest since early 2023 and late 2022, respectively, Rabobank's Energy Strategist Florence Schmit notes.

Europe continues to face high energy prices

"The EU's gas storage targets are under pressure due to unfavorable summer-winter spreads, leading to low storage incentives over the coming months. Current storage levels are already below 50% of capacity and risk being depleted to 30% by the end of March."

"Sanctions on Russia’s energy sector remain the biggest risk premium for European gas, with Russian pipeline gas accounting for 5% of Europe’s supply mix and Russian LNG accounting for 16% of LNG deliveries. China’s 15% tariff on imports of U.S. LNG temporarily frees up supply for Europe but does not alter global supply availability in the short term."

"Wind power generation so far this winter retreated to the lowest since the winter of 2020/2021 but the continued buildout of renewable capacity could help prices end the upward spiral from spring."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD drops to two-week low, further below 0.7000 after RBA's less hawkish rate hike

AUD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day on Tuesday, hitting a fresh two-week low during the Asian session after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) widely expected 25 bps rate hike. The decision was far from unanimous, with three members preferring to hold rates at 4.60%. This tempers expectations of further tightening, which, along with modest US Dollar strength, weighs on the currency pair.

USD/JPY fails near 159.00 amid weak USD, intervention risks

USD/JPY edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's gains to 158.00 as the US Dollar remains depressed amid hopes for Iran diplomacy and ahead of US midterm elections. Meanwhile, intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, though the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike caps gains. This keeps the pair confined within a familiar range and warrants caution before placing directional bets.

Gold slides below $3,900 as Fed hike bets counter softer USD ahead of US elections

Gold slides below the $3,900 mark during the first half of the European session, eyeing its lowest level since October 2025, set last week amid expectations of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Data released on Monday showed that US manufacturing sector business activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI came in higher than consensus estimates and rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in the previous month.

Cardano extends losses as sellers stay in control

Cardano (ADA) extends correction, trading below $0.189 on Tuesday after losing key support zone the previous day. Mixed derivatives data and cautious on-chain metrics continue to weigh on bullish sentiment, while weakening technical indicators suggest further downside risks for ADA.

BoE is set to hike rates this week: Warns against 'unwarranted' aggressive tightening

We see a hike as a done deal this week and another, while not yet our baseline scenario, is possible in February should inflation stay above 4%, commodity prices remain high and activity remain resilient. We remain of the view, however, that aggressive tightening is unwarranted, for four main reasons: There are no clear signs of second-round inflation effects, nor do we think that there will be.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.