According to Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, the decline in Eurozone PMI from 52.7 to 51.3 suggests the revival of GDP growth may not have happened at all.
“Today, the PMI sends a message that is more along the lines of “continuing confidence with alarm bells ringing”.”
“GDP growth in the third quarter slowed to 0.2% with expectations of a bounce back straight after. Even though the PMI is still signalling output growth, the question is whether growth has even picked up at all despite one-offs affecting the third quarter reading.”
“New orders barely grew in December and export orders showed the sharpest contraction seen since the start of the indicator. The global economic environment is hindering Eurozone output, but internal factors like the French protests also played a role in the weak December reading.”
“Today’s PMI confirms an already slow growth environment and with plenty of downside risks possibly materialising before summer next year, doubts about the forward guidance are likely to increase.”
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