Eurozone: No surprises in inflation numbers – Nordea Markets
Anders Svendsen, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that the Eurozone’s final HICP figures confirmed flash estimates of headline inflation at 1.4% y/y and core inflation at 1.1% y/y in January despite quite big revisions to the German index numbers.
Key Quotes
“German CPI was revised and rebased (new base year 2015 = 100, previously: 2010 = 100). The revision included a new methodology around package holidays to better reflect the seasonality of package holiday prices. This implied a recalculation of historical CPI and HICP back to 2015 using the new methodology. As a consequence, also the Euro-area HICP was recalculated, given the revised German HICP.”
“Our estimate of supercore inflation – the part of core inflation that is responsive to the business cycle – remained unchanged at 1.4% y/y while the rest of core picked up marginally to 0.7% y/y.”
“Looking ahead, we expect supercore inflation to continue rising during the year in a lagged response to rising wage growth. This should take core inflation very gradually towards 1.5% y/y towards the end of the year.”
Author
Sandeep Kanihama
FXStreet Contributor
Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.
