- EUR/USD established a bearish lower high near 1.11 last week.
- A drop to 1.10 looks likely courtest of trade tensions.
- The psychological support will likely be breached if the German IFO - Expectations (Nov) prints below estimates.
EUR/USD is looking south and will likely drop below 1.10 on Monday if the German IFO data misses expectations.
Notably, the common currency fell from 1.1058 to 1.1014 on Friday, confirming a lower high at 1.1097, courtesy of the mixed German PMIs and the dismal Eurozone PMIs. European Central Bank's President Christine Lagarde said the global economic uncertainty is high and called for fiscal boost, as expected.
The newly established lower highs setup has opened the doors for a retest of 1.10. The case for a drop to the psychological support looks stronger if we take into account the fading US-China trade optimism. Reports hit the wires during the Asian session that the phase two of the US-China trade deal is less likely to happen anytime soon, given the two sides are struggling to ratify the phase one of the trade deal. Note that the German economy has paid a heavy price for the year-long trade tensions.
Further, the dollar side of the story is looking strong, courtesy of Friday's better-than-expected U.S. Markit PMIs and an upward revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
All-in-all, there is little reason for the EUR traders to put a bid under the single currency on Monday and the support at 1.10 will likely be breached if the German IFOs, scheduled for release at 09:00 GMT, print below estimates, underlining the need for more stimulus.
That German economy is facing recession risk is generally accepted by now. Therefore, the forward-looking IFO - Expectations (Nov) index will take precedence over the Business Climate and the Current Assessment number. The Expectation index is seen printing at 92.5 versus 91.5 in October. An above-forecast reading could put a floor under the EUR.
Technical levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends gains above 1.0700, focus on key US data
EUR/USD meets fresh demand and rises toward 1.0750 in the European session on Thursday. Renewed US Dollar weakness offsets the risk-off market environment, supporting the pair ahead of the key US GDP and PCE inflation data.
USD/JPY keeps pushing higher, eyes 156.00 ahead of US GDP data
USD/JPY keeps breaking into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 early Thursday, recapturing 155.50 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen remains vulnerable, despite looming intervention risks. The focus shifts to Thursday's US GDP report and the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold closes below key $2,318 support, US GDP holds the key
Gold price is breathing a sigh of relief early Thursday after testing offers near $2,315 once again. Broad risk-aversion seems to be helping Gold find a floor, as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bright metal ahead of the preliminary reading of the US first-quarter GDP due later on Thursday.
Injective price weakness persists despite over 5.9 million INJ tokens burned
Injective price is trading with a bearish bias, stuck in the lower section of the market range. The bearish outlook abounds despite the network's deflationary efforts to pump the price.
US Q1 GDP Preview: Economic growth set to remain firm in, albeit easing from Q4
The United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is seen expanding at an annualized rate of 2.5% in Q1. The current resilience of the US economy bolsters the case for a soft landing.