EUR/USD steadies around 1.1700 ahead of Q2 Eurozone GDP, US PPI data
- EUR/USD holds ground ahead of the release of Eurozone Gross Domestic Product data for the second quarter.
- CME’s FedWatch tool indicates pricing in a nearly 94% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes that the Fed could implement a 50-basis-point rate cut in September.
EUR/USD moves little after two days of losses as the US Dollar (USD) experiences a technical recovery, trading around 1.1700 during the Asian hours on Thursday. Traders await Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter due later in the day. Focus will shift toward the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and weekly Initial Jobless Claims later in the North American session.
However, the Greenback may lose its ground amid rising odds of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in nearly a 94% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut at the September meeting.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on Wednesday that short-term Fed interest rates should be 1.5-1.75% lower than the current benchmark rate at an effective 4.33%. Bessent added that there is a good chance that the central bank could opt for a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
US President Donald Trump shared his "paper calculation" that Fed interest rates should be at or near 1%. Trump also noted interest rates should be three or four points lower. Interest rates are just a paper calculation, he added.
The EUR/USD pair gained ground as the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to end its easing cycle in July after eight cuts over the past year, leaving borrowing costs at their lowest since November 2022. However, traders still expect another cut before year-end.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
