|

EUR/USD stays bearish near term – Scotiabank

FX Strategists at Scotiabank keep their bearish outlook on the pair unchanged in the near term.

Key Quotes

“Investors continue to shed EUR long positions as the cost of carrying USD shorts versus lower yielding currencies becomes even more punishing in the absence of gains in the underlying position. For USD-based investors, the cost of holding a short position versus the EUR amounts to 290 pips (3m hedged annualized). Most mainland European markets are closed today, robbing the spot market of liquidity but the EUR is looking soft and prone to more losses as the market nears psychological support around the 1.20 mark”.

“Volumes are light but the damage to the short-term chart is hard to ignore as EURUSD slides to new cycle lows, pushing below the low seen through Friday’s (bullish) session and pressures longer run consolidation support in the 1.2030 zone. Trend momentum is bearish, but looking somewhat over extended on the short-term charts. There is little, obvious support below the 1.20 until 1.1918, the Jan low”.

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.



Gold finds temporary floor near $3,850, downside risks persist

Gold rises almost 0.9% to near $3,915 in the early trade on Friday after posting a fresh 13-month low near $3,850 the previous day. The recovery move in the Gold price after a massive decline in the past few days started Tuesday appears to be short-lived as several headwinds are boosting bears to keep up the dominance.

Bitcoin slips below $70,000 for the first time since August

Bitcoin is attracting some serious sellers, pushing it below $70,000 on Friday after an over 3% decline the previous day. The Crypto King is down over 5% so far this week, and a bearish close could mark its sixth consecutive week of losses. The technical outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, with sellers tightening their grip despite overextending the downtrend to oversold levels.

Asian stocks post mixed results amid Nvidia leadership turmoil, Anthropic IPO buzz
Asian stocks post mixed results on Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index climbing 0.91% to around 61,370 and China’s Shanghai Composite rising 0.22% to 3,660. Conversely, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.82% to 23,810, while South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.49% to near 5,320.
What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.