EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.1650 following German Retail Sales, awaits CPI data

EUR/USD holds losses following the release of German Retail Sales data on Friday.
German Retail Sales climbed 1.9% YoY in July, against a 4.9% rise prior and an expected 2.6% increase.
Headline US PCE is forecast to rise 2.6% YoY, while core PCE is expected to increase 2.9% in July.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/USD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.1660 during the European hours on Friday. The pair moves little following the release of disappointing German Retail Sales data. German preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be eyed later in the day.

The Federal Statistics Office of Germany, Destatis, published the Retail Sales report on Friday, indicating a rise of 1.9% year-over-year in July, following a 4.9% jump reported in June. The market forecast was for a 2.6% increase. Retail Sales dropped 1.5% month-over-month in July versus June’s 1% growth and -0.4% expected.

The EUR/USD pair also faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) advances, driven by the improved United States (US) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized data released on Thursday. The US economy grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in the second quarter, against the expected 3.1% increase and 3.0% prior.

Traders will likely observe the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July due later in the North American session, the last key inflation release before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Headline PCE is forecast to rise 2.6% year-over-year in July, while core PCE is expected to increase 2.9% over the same period. The upbeat data may dampen the ongoing dovish sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would support an interest-rate cut in the September meeting and further reductions over the next three to six months to prevent the labor market from collapsing, per Reuters. Moreover, US Vice President JD Vance, in an interview with USA Today on Thursday, end of the Federal Reserve’s autonomy.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. The CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish.

British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data

The British Pound is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.

EUR/USD challenges 1.1500 on Dollar’s recovery

EUR/USD now accelerates its downtrend and comes closer to the 1.1500 level on Monday. The pair’s correction follows the decent improvement in the US Dollar amid solid data US releases and easing concerns on the geopolitical front.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold adds to Friday’s pullback, although it remains well underpinned by the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce on Monday. The US Dollar’s inconclusive price action seems enough to cap the yellow metal’s potential upside, although renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and fading expectations of a Fed rate hike could limit the Greenback’s recovery.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

The Bitcoin futures yield collapse: Once over 20%, now less than Treasury notes

Once a goldmine for carry traders, Bitcoin futures have flipped, consistently underperforming plain‑vanilla U.S. Treasuries every month since February. Carry trades consistently yielded 20% or more across regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges during the 2021 bull market. The strategy involved shorting Bitcoin futures while simultaneously buying a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.