EUR/USD recovery faltered ahead of 1.1050


  • EUR/USD gives some signs of recovery on Thursday.
  • The initial up move lost impetus near 1.1050.
  • EMU Current Account figures, US Philly Fed Index next of relevance.

The mood around the single currency stays erratic for the time being, with EUR/USD managing to climb to the 1.1050 region following lows near 1.1000 on Wednesday.

EUR/USD leaves the FOMC behind, focused on data, ECB

Spot dropped and tested the proximity of 1.10 the figure on Wednesday following the FOMC event, where the Committee decided to cut the FFTR by 25 bps, in line with market consensus.

The decision has disappointed USD-bears after a split vote showed members George and Rosengren favoured an on hold stance while mega-dovish member Bullard advocated for a 50 bps rate cut. In addition, Chief Powell did not pre-commit to further rate cuts although he did not discard them in the next months either, leaving any future decisions by the Fed data/trade-dependent.

Data wise in Euroland, Current Account figures for the month of July are due next while the key Philly Fed manufacturing gauge will see the light later in the NA session.

What to look for around EUR

The single currency is extending the choppy trading so far this week in the wake of the key FOMC gathering on Wednesday. EUR lost some shine following the recent peaks beyond 1.11 the figure, recorded after the ECB announced €20 billion/month in bond purchases under the re-launched QE programme. The occasional recovery in spot, however, is seen as corrective only always against the backdrop of unremitting slowdown in the region, looser for longer monetary conditions by the ECB and the likelihood that the German economy could slip into technical recession in Q3. Adding to this gloomy scenario, potential US tariffs on imports of EU cars remain well on the table, while persistent uncertainty around Brexit adds to the downbeat outlook.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 1.1040 and faces the initial hurdle at 1.1109 (monthly high Sep.13) seconded by 1.1163 (high Aug.26) and finally 1.1176 (100-day SMA). On the flip side, a break below 1.0990 (low Sep.16) would target 1.0925 (2019 low Sep.3) en route to 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017).

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