EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flirts with descending channel resistance, just below 1.1100 mark

EUR/USD builds on this week’s bounce from a multi-week low amid a bearish USD.
Bets for a larger rate cut by the Fed and a positive risk tone weigh on the Greenback.
Bulls need to wait for a break through a descending channel before placing fresh bets.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair builds on the previous day's goodish recovery move from the 1.1000 psychological mark, or a nearly four-week low, and attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day on Friday. The momentum lifts spot prices to the top end of the weekly range, around the 1.1090 area during the Asian session and is sponsored by broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness.

The softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report released on Thursday lifted bets for a larger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. This, along with a positive risk tone, drags the USD to over a one-week low and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) refrained from providing a specific interest rate guidance, which underpins the shared currency and contributes to the bid tone surrounding the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices currently trade near the top end of over a three-week-old descending trend channel. A sustained strength beyond will suggest that the recent corrective decline from the highest level since July 2023, touched last month, has run its course and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move. The EUR/USD pair might then accelerate the positive move toward the next relevant hurdle near the 1.1155 area before making a fresh attempt to conquer the 1.1200 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the 1.1065-1.1060 horizontal zone now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.1000 pivotal support. The latter is closely followed by the descending trend-channel support, currently near the 1.0975 area, which, if broken decisively, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and prompt aggressive technical selling. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the EUR/USD pair towards testing sub-1.0900 levels, with some intermediate support near the 1.0950 region.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD drops to two-week low, further below 0.7000 after RBA's less hawkish rate hike

AUD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day on Tuesday, hitting a fresh two-week low during the Asian session after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) widely expected 25 bps rate hike. The decision was far from unanimous, with three members preferring to hold rates at 4.60%. This tempers expectations of further tightening, which, along with modest US Dollar strength, weighs on the currency pair.

USD/JPY fails near 159.00 amid weak USD, intervention risks

USD/JPY edges lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's gains to 158.00 as the US Dollar remains depressed amid hopes for Iran diplomacy and ahead of US midterm elections. Meanwhile, intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, though the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike caps gains. This keeps the pair confined within a familiar range and warrants caution before placing directional bets.

Gold struggles below $3,950 amid Fed hike bets, ahead of US midterm elections

Gold weakens further below $3,950 during the Asian session, reversing part of the previous day's recovery from a one-year low set last week. Data released on Monday showed that US manufacturing sector business activity expanded for the 10th straight month in October. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI came in higher than consensus estimates and rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in the previous month. This reaffirms hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations, which along with rebounding US bond yields, prompt fresh selling around the non-yielding yellow metal.

Cardano extends losses as sellers stay in control

Cardano (ADA) extends correction, trading below $0.189 on Tuesday after losing key support zone the previous day. Mixed derivatives data and cautious on-chain metrics continue to weigh on bullish sentiment, while weakening technical indicators suggest further downside risks for ADA.

What a split Congress means for the US Dollar

The United States is going to the polls on Tuesday, and much is at stake. The mid-term elections mean the renovation of roughly one-third of the Senate and all 435 of the House seats. Additionally, special elections in Florida and Ohio will be held to fill the seats vacated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.