EUR/USD Price Analysis: Path of least resistance appears down ahead of Lagarde


  • EUR/USD wavers in a tight range below 1.1700-1.1730, Lagarde eyed.
  • German election wrangling and weaker US dollar leave the pair in limbo.
  • EUR/USD’s hourly chart shows that downside remains more compelling for now.

EUR/USD is attempting a tepid bounce from daily lows, but remains well within the trading range so far this Monday, as markets refrain from placing any fresh bets on the main currency pair after the German election outcome and ahead of the speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde.

Markets also await the US Durable Goods Orders data for fresh dollar trades, as the risk-on mood appears to keep the USD bulls at bay in early Europe. Receding China Evergrande fears combined with the US infrastructure stimulus optimism has lifted the investors’ sentiments starting out a big week, with Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and the US ISM Manufacturing Index – the key highlights.

Looking at EUR/USD’s one-hour chart, the price is teasing an ascending triangle breakdown, with an hourly candlestick closing below the rising trendline support at 1.1722 to validate the downside breakout.

A test of the 1.1700 mark will be inevitable on a triangle breakdown, opening floors for a retest of the multi-week lows near 1.1680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing south below the midline, backing the case for further downside.

EUR/USD: Hourly chart

Alternatively, recapturing of the triangle support now resistance at 1.1722 is critical to attempting a minor pullback towards the horizontal 100-Hourly Moving Average (HMA) at 1.1726.

Further up, the mildly bullish 50-HMA at 1.1730 could be challenged by the bullish traders. The 1.1750 psychological level will come into play if the buying pressure intensifies.

EUR/USD: Additional levels to consider

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price 1.1714
Today Daily Change -0.0004
Today Daily Change % -0.03
Today daily open 1.172
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.1795
Daily SMA50 1.1786
Daily SMA100 1.191
Daily SMA200 1.198
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.1748
Previous Daily Low 1.1701
Previous Weekly High 1.1756
Previous Weekly Low 1.1684
Previous Monthly High 1.19
Previous Monthly Low 1.1664
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1719
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.173
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1698
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.1676
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.1651
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1745
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.177
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1792

 

 

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