EUR/USD Price Analysis: Holds above 1.0900 amid overbought condition, ECB rate decision eyed

EUR/USD attracts some buyers near 1.0900, the two-week high.
The pair holds above the key 100-hour EMA with the overbought RSI condition.
The first resistance level will emerge at 1.0960; 1.0852 acts as an initial support level for the pair.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair gains momentum around the 1.0900 mark during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the softer US Dollar (USD) after the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. Investors will keep an eye on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, with no change in rate expected. Nonetheless, the ECB Press Conference might offer some hints about the further monetary policy path and give a clear direction to the pair.

According to the four-hour chart, the bullish look of EUR/USD remains intact as the major pair holds above the key 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70, suggesting an overbought condition, further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/USD appreciation.

The first upside barrier will emerge near a high of November 27 at 1.0960. The key resistance level is seen at the 1.1000 psychological round mark. Any decisive break above the latter will see a rally to a high of November 29 at 1.1017, followed by a high of August 4 at 1.1042.

On the downside, a low of November 22 at 1.0852 acts as an initial support level for EUR/USD. The critical contention level to watch is 1.0825, portraying the confluence of the 100-hour EMA and a low of November 17. A breach of this level will see a drop to a low of December 11 at 1.0741. Further south, the next stop is located at the lower limit of the Bollinger Band, and a round figure of 1.0700.

EUR/USD four-hour chart

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.09
Today Daily Change	0.0019
Today Daily Change %	0.17
Today daily open	1.0881

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0871
Daily SMA50	1.0724
Daily SMA100	1.0756
Daily SMA200	1.0826

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0897
Previous Daily Low	1.0773
Previous Weekly High	1.0895
Previous Weekly Low	1.0724
Previous Monthly High	1.1017
Previous Monthly Low	1.0517
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0849
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.082
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0804
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0727
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.068
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0928
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0974
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.1051

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold remains capped below $4,200 as traders await US NFP for Fed rate cuts

Gold extends its sideways move on Friday, trading below the $4,200 mark heading into the European session as traders await the release of US employment details. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show that the economy added only 90K jobs in September, down from the previous month's reading of 162K.

Pi Network retreats to key support level as selling pressure resurfaces

Pi Network price remains volatile in the near term, hovering around $0.0900 at press time on Friday after losing over 3% the previous day. The pullback warns of a steeper correction, with a risk of breaking below a rising wedge pattern on the four-hour chart. Pi Network struggles to maintain a steady recovery as the price remains capped below the $0.1000 psychological barrier.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to soften in September

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 90K in September following August’s impressive 162K increase. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.1%, while the monthly wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to hold steady at 0.3%.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.