EUR/USD Price Analysis: Consolidates near two-week high, setup favours bullish traders

EUR/USD consolidates Thursday’s strong move up to over a two-week high.
Acceptance above the 1.0745-50 confluence hurdle favours bullish traders.
A convincing beak below the 1.0700 mark will negate the positive outlook.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating the previous day's strong gains to over a two-week high and oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0775-1.0780 region and seem poised to build on the recent bounce from the 1.0635 region, or the lowest level since March 20 touched last week.

The overnight sharp rise confirms a breakout through the 1.0745 confluence - comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall witnessed in May and a short-term descending trend-line. This, in turn, favours bullish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart - though have recovered from the negative territory - are yet to confirm a bullish outlook. Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront some resistance near the 1.0800 round-figure mark, representing the 38.2% Fibo. level.

Some follow-through buying, however, will set the stage for additional gains and lift the EUR/USD pair to the next relevant hurdle near the 1.0860 region. The latter represents the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibo. level, which if cleared decisively will suggest that the recent pullback from over a one-year high touched in May has run its course. Spot prices might then aim to surpass the 1.0900 round figure and test the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 1.0915-1.0920 zone.

On the flip side, the 1.0750-1.0745 confluence resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.0700 mark. This is closely followed by an upward sloping trend-line, currently pegged near the 1.0680 region, below which the EUR/USD pair could slide back towards the May monthly swing low, around the 1.0635 area. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag spot prices below the 1.0600 mark, towards testing the 1.0540-1.0535 intermediate support en route to the 1.0500 psychological mark.

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0778
Today Daily Change	-0.0004
Today Daily Change %	-0.04
Today daily open	1.0782

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0764
Daily SMA50	1.0887
Daily SMA100	1.0809
Daily SMA200	1.0516

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0787
Previous Daily Low	1.0696
Previous Weekly High	1.0779
Previous Weekly Low	1.0635
Previous Monthly High	1.1092
Previous Monthly Low	1.0635
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0752
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0731
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0723
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0664
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0632
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0814
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0846
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0906

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

GBP/USD keeps the bid bias near 1.3550

GBP/USD leaves behind part of the recent three-day retracement and hovers around the 1.3550 region on Monday. The Greenback’s fresh downward trend helps Cable and the rest of the risk complex recoup part of the recent ground lost while attention remains on the potential Fed rate path.

EUR/USD retakes 1.1600; looks at the 200-day SMA

EUR/USD manages to gather fresh steam and advances past the 1.1600 hurdle as Monday’s NA session draws to a close. Indeed, the pair patially reverses Friday’s sharp retracement amid the renewed downside momentum in the US Dollar. Moving forward, the flash Inflation Rate in the euro zone and US JOLTs and the ISM Manufacturing should keep investors entertained on turnaround Tuesday.

Gold: Is the bullish run over?

Gold adds to Friday’s marked decline, although it has managed to bounce off earlier lows in the sub-$4,400 region per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal’s pullback comes despite the softer stance in the US Dollar and steady uncertainty in the Middle East, although rising yields keep bulls at bay for now.

Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC clings to support, XAU slides as US-Iran tensions re-escalate

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains stability above $78,000 support on Monday as crypto prices broadly consolidate. Gold (XAU/USD), meanwhile, holds above $4,400, marking two consecutive days of declines. Sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market remains broadly positive, with the Fear & Greed Index holding at 62 on Monday, down slightly from 69 the previous day.

Oil rallies on fresh persian gulf strikes

Energy prices are trading firmer this morning after the US carried out targeted strikes against Iran, drawing retaliatory strikes and reinforcing concerns about a prolonged stalemate in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices started the week stronger following the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month. ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.