EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bear flag breakdown on D1

EUR/USD's bear flag breakdown has exposed September lows.
The daily chart RSI also favors deeper losses.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

The path of least resistance for EUR/USD is to the downside.

The pair fell by over 0.6% on Wednesday, confirming a bear flag breakdown on the daily chart. The breakdown indicates the sell-off from the Sept. 1 high of 1.2011 has resumed. As such, a re-test of the Sept. 25 low of 1.612 looks likely.

Supporting the case for a deeper drop is the below-50 or bearish reading on the 14-day relative strength index. Also, the daily chart MACD histogram is printing deeper bars below the zero line. That's a sign of the strengthening of bearish momentum.

The bearish outlook would be invalidated if the pair finds acceptance above Thursday's high of 1.1758. At press time, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day near 1.1673.

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.1673
Today Daily Change	-0.0002
Today Daily Change %	-0.02
Today daily open	1.1675

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.1774
Daily SMA50	1.1789
Daily SMA100	1.165
Daily SMA200	1.1312

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.1759
Previous Daily Low	1.165
Previous Weekly High	1.1881
Previous Weekly Low	1.1703
Previous Monthly High	1.2011
Previous Monthly Low	1.1612
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.1692
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.1717
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.163
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.1586
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.1522
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.1739
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.1803
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.1847

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

GBP/USD holds recovery gains near 1.3400 despite soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.3400 in European trading on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, failing to deter the British Pound's rebound from weekly troughs. However, the pair's further upside could be limited by ongoing Mideast tensions and sustained US Dollar demand as a haven.

EUR/USD gains ground above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB tone

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid escalating military tensions and recent retaliatory airstrikes between the US and Iran.

Gold ease from two-week top as energy-driven inflation fears bolster Fed hike bets

Gold retreats slightly from a two-week high touched earlier this Wednesday, albeit it retains an intraday bullish bias through the first half of the European session. Hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations undermine the US Dollar, which is seen supporting the commodity. In fact, top negotiators for Iran and the US signaled that they have not walked away from talks.

Cardano: Short-term recovery lacks retail support

Cardano price edges lower after the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $1.770 capped two consecutive days of recovery seen earlier this week. ADA futures point to waning retail traction as Open Interest and trading volume decline amid elevated long liquidations. The technical outlook for ADA is bearish, as momentum remains subdued below a resistance trendline near $0.1782.

Chip stocks are more volatile than Oil

I continue to start the day by looking at these two charts: US crude & Kospi. The former is extending gains, trading above $86 per barrel for WTI and $92 per barrel for Brent, while the Kospi is up more than 4.5%, led higher by Korean chipmakers following a similar jump in VanEck's Semiconductor ETF yesterday.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.