EUR/USD Price Analaysis: Bull's last dance, or is this just the warm up?


  • EUR/USD is heavily bid in a very short dollar market positioning and some observers would expect profit-taking from.
  • Bulls are not showing much sign of trying, bears will need to just be patient at this juncture. 

EUR/USD has been a very strong player on the bid these past several weeks as the market's turn back on the mighty US dollar.

There have been strong arguments for a fundamental long in the euro considering the newfound cohesion between European leaders coming together to resolve the economic crisis pertaining to the coronavirus. 

If the virus has been good for one thing, other than giving mother nature a break, it has managed to give a new lease of life to what was a thwarted single currency. 

As explained in the following article, there are plenty of bearish factors playing out in the greenback which is also underpinning the euro's survival in what is otherwise an overstretched chart and positioning by funds.

DXY: Dollar liquidity plentiful thanks to the Fed, markets increasingly bearish on US outlook

However, as the following charts portray, there are little signs that the buyers are taking profits, so bearish bets are off the table for the time being, at least until the downside structure is broken:

Monthly chart

A strong double bottom resulted in a promising bull rally that has cut through resistance structures like butter.

Weekly chart

The bulls have been relentless since breaking up from the Fib retracement. 

Dail Head and Shoulders and new structure

4HR chart 

The 4 HR shows no signs of slowing, with a series of higher highs and lows. This is the structure that needs to give before bears can safely position for downside objectives. 

However, heavily loaded longs on the positioning data could mean that this trade is overstretched and profit-taking could ensue.

Daily 61.8% hypothetical target

If the top is here, then the Fibs match with structure as displayed don the above chart.

However, as we have seen, there are no signs that this bull trend has any plans on slowing.

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