EUR/USD: On a recovery mode towards 1.1345/50 ahead of Eurozone final CPI


  • Risk-on supports the pair ahead of second-tier data release.
  • 1.1370 seems important resistances with 1.1280 acting as nearby support to watch during pullback.

EUR/USD is on bids around 1.1320 ahead of European open on Friday. The EUR is recovering yesterday’s losses as traders prefer risk-assets over the US Dollar (USD) on recently positive Brexit reports. Adding to the sentiment were comments from the US President Donald Trump that signals US-China trade solution in next 3-4 weeks. Upcoming details from Eurozone and the US could direct near-term market moves while risk sentiment might keep playing background music.

The EUR/USD pair rose early Friday as markets turned to risk-on after the British members of parliament (MPs) voted for delaying the Brexit deadline from March 29. The sentiment got additional support after President Trump said talks with China are progressing and will take nearly 3-4 for making any decision whereas China’s Xinhua news reported both the economies made substantive progress on trade talks.

Traders now await second-tier data from the Eurozone and the US that start with Final reading of February month Eurozone consumer price index (CPI). The Eurozone CPI may remain unchanged at 1.5% on YoY basis while likely confirming 1.0% Core CPI figure on a yearly basis. However, the monthly figure of CPI might increase from -1.0% flash version to +0.3%.

In the case of the US, March month numbers for NY empire state manufacturing index and Michigan consumer sentiment index join hands with monthly industrial production release for February month. All of the scheduled US data are expected to increase. The manufacturing and consumer sentiment indices could rise to 10.0 and 95.3 versus 8.8 and 93.8 respective priors whereas industrial production growth might advance +0.4% from -0.3% earlier contraction.

While the economics may favor the USD over the EUR, additional improvements in market risk-taking can help the EUR/USD pair to cross 1.1345/50 upside barrier.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Given the buyers’ repeated failures to surpass 1.1345/50 area since late-February, an uptick beyond the same might not hesitate to fuel the pair towards 1.1370 resistance-confluence comprising 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending trend-line since January 31.

Alternatively, 1.1280 and 1.1250 may offer immediate support to the pair ahead of highlighting 1.1215 as supports.

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