EUR/USD off highs, back below 1.1600 post-ISM

EUR/USD runs out of steam just past 1.1600.
EMU flash September CPI came at 3.4%, Core CPI at 1.9%.
US ISM Manufacturing improves to 61.1 in September.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The single currency gives away some gains and motivates EUR/USD to return to the sub-1.1600 area at the end of the week.

EUR/USD recedes from tops on upbeat ISM

The daily recovery in EUR/USD falters ahead of 1.1610 on Friday after the greenback looks to claw back some ground following the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing and U-Mich results.

In addition, yields of the US 10-year reference note came back to life ad now flirt once again with the 1.50% level in the wake of the ISM and U-Mich releases. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yields plummet to the -0.23% region.

In the docket then, the ISM Manufacturing surprised to the upside and improved to 61.1 during last month. In the same direction, the final Consumer Sentiment print rose to 72.8 (from 70.3) during the same period. Finally, Markit’s Manufacturing PMI bettered estimates at 60.7 although move a tad lower from August’s 61.1.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is gaining 0.21% at 1.1598 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1674 (10-day SMA) followed by 1.1755 (weekly high Sep.22) and finally 1.1770 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1562 (2021 low Sep.30) would target 1.1500 (round level) en route to 1.1495 (high Mar.9 2020).

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD bulls seem hesitant below 0.7050 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD reverses an Asian session dip on Monday as renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy boosts investor confidence, keeping a lid on the safe-haven US Dollar and supporting the risk-sensitive Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the one-month high, touched last Thursday, as bulls wait for the crucial RBA decision before taking fresh positions.

USD/JPY climbs to 158.00 neighborhood as BoJ uncertainty weighs on the JPY

The USD/JPY pair gains some positive traction at the start of a new week, recovering further from Friday's post-Bank of Japan (BoJ) swing low to sub-157.00 levels. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 158.00 neighborhood during the Asian session and seems unaffected by fresh intervention warning from Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Gold recovers on positive US-Iran headlines

Gold extends its recovery during American trading hours on Monday, supported by falling Oil prices following positive headlines on US-Iran talks. The metal regains ground after hitting a fresh yearly low of $3,870 on Friday and ending October down 6.87%. However, the rebound lacks conviction as the fundamental backdrop continues to raise doubts over a sustained recovery.

Bitcoin braces for US midterm elections as historical sell-offs revive downside concerns

Bitcoin (BTC) braces for the impact of the US midterm elections, just a week after the $6 billion hack from Binance. Historically, congressional elections have negatively affected not just the president’s party but also Bitcoin. In the last 22 midterms, the ruling party has gained House seats only twice, while the three most recent elections coincided with Bitcoin’s bear market bottoms.

Why strong US growth could not stop the bond rally and AI selloff

The US economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate, yet Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq ended October with its worst monthly performance since March 2025. The market is no longer rewarding capital expenditure simply because it supports growth. Investors are testing whether that expenditure can produce cash flow and returns above the cost of capital.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.