EUR could decline further; the major support at 1.0600 could be just out of reach for now. In the longer run, the next level to watch is 1.0600; if EUR breaks below 1.0600, the focus will shift to 1.0555, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Below 1.0600, the focus will shift to 1.0555
24-HOUR VIEW: “While we expected EUR to trade with a downward bias yesterday, we noted that it ‘does not seem to have enough momentum to reach 1.0665.’ We underestimated the momentum, as EUR not only reached 1.0665, but also dropped further to 1.0628. It then closed on a weak note at 1.0654, down by 0.60% for the day. The rapid drop appears to be a tad overdone, but with no sign of stabilisation just yet, EUR could decline further today. However, the major support at 1.0600 could be just out of reach for now. To keep the momentum going, EUR must not break above 1.0705, with minor resistance at 1.0675.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our latest narrative from last Thursday (07 Nov, spot at 1.0730), we indicated that the steep selloff last Wednesday ‘suggests further EUR weakness’ and ‘the levels to watch are 1.0665 (low in Jun) and the year-to-date low of 1.0600 in April.’ Yesterday (Monday), EUR broke below 1.0665, reaching a low of 1.0628. As indicated, the next level to watch is 1.0600. We will continue to hold a negative EUR view as long as 1.0760 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.0815) is not breached. Looking ahead, if EUR breaks below 1.0600, the focus will shift to 1.0555.”
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