EUR/USD making a run for 1.0750 ahead of Fed's rate call

EUR/USD breaking to the upside as markets position ahead of the Fed.
The Fed is expected to stand pat on interest rates, give updated economic outlook.
Fed chair Jerome Powell to hold press conference 30 minutes after data release.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The EUR/USD is stepping higher in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) showing today, reaching for the 1.0750 level. The US Dollar (USD) has been giving up ground to the Euro (EUR) throughout the Wednesday trading session as investors brace for the Fed’s upcoming rate call and updated ‘dot plot’ projections.

Next up: Fed rate, outlook, and press conference

Markets are broadly expecting the Fed to hold steady on their benchmark interest rate band at 5.25% - 5.5%, but the key to today’s Fed action will be their updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Investors are still currently mixed on their Fed projections for the rest of the year, with 40% of market participants still expecting one more rate hike this year.

Elsewhere on the docket, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde is slated to give a speech during the Thursday market session. ECB President Lagarde will be delivering speaking notes at the Mediterranean meetings being held in Marseilles.

Friday will also bring Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data for both the Eurozone and the US, capping off an action-packed midweek.

PMIs for the pan-European economic zone are expected to come in mixed, with the composite figure expected to decline slightly from 46.7 to 46.5.

On the US side, PMIs are forecast to tick upwards, albeit slightly. US manufacturing PMIs are forecast to tick from 47.9 to 48.0, and services is seen giving a similar improvement from 50.5 to 50.5.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is bouncing for Wednesday’s pre-Fed action, climbing over the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) to claim territory north of the 1.0730 level. The pair kicked off Wednesday’s trading session near 1.0680 and has done nothing but ramp up as Greenback traders hold their orders.

On the daily candlesticks, the EUR/USD has been gaining some bullish momentum from the recent bottom near 1.0650, but the pair is set for a faceoff with a descending trendline from July’s last swing high near 1.1250. Continued upside pressure will also have to contend with the 200-day SMA, currently floating just beneath 1.0850.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0737
Today Daily Change	0.0057
Today Daily Change %	0.53
Today daily open	1.068

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0763
Daily SMA50	1.0918
Daily SMA100	1.0889
Daily SMA200	1.0829

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0718
Previous Daily Low	1.0675
Previous Weekly High	1.0769
Previous Weekly Low	1.0632
Previous Monthly High	1.1065
Previous Monthly Low	1.0766
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0691
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0702
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0664
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0648
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0621
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0707
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0734
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.075

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD eases toward 1.1700 as USD recovers

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and declines toward 1.1700 on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar as investors look past softer US inflation data. However, the EUR/USD downside appears capped by expectations of the Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the US Dollar benefits from the cautious market stance, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold stays weak below $4,350 as USD bulls shrug off softer US CPI

Gold holds the previous day's late pullback from the vicinity of the record high and stays in the red below $4,350 in the European session on Friday. The US CPI report released on Thursday pointed to cooling inflationary pressures, but the US Dollar seems resilient amid a fresh bout of short-covering.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple correction slide as BoJ rate decision weighs on sentiment

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are extending their correction phases after losing nearly 3%, 8%, and 10%, respectively, through Friday. The pullback phase is further strengthened as the upcoming Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday weighs on risk sentiment, with BTC breaking key support, ETH deepening weekly losses, and XRP sliding to multi-month lows.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures.

Ethereum Price Forecast: EF outlines ways to solve growing state issues

Ethereum price today: $2,920. The EF noted that Ethereum's growing state could lead to centralization and weaken censorship resistance. The Stateless Consensus team outlined state expiry, state archive and partial statelessness as potential solutions to the growing state load.