EUR/USD looks wary, clings to 1.0700 ahead of the ECB

EUR/USD comes under pressure near 1.0700.
German 10y Bund yields approach 1.40%.
The ECB is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The single currency wobbles between gains and losses and motivates EUR/USD to trade within a volatile note around the 1.0700 region on Thursday.

EUR/USD focuses on the ECB

EUR/USD trades in an unresolved fashion so far on Thursday, gyrating around the 1.0700 neighbourhood amidst rising cautiousness ahead of the ECB event later in the session.

Indeed, the central bank is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged (for the last time?), while bets for a hawkish tone from both the Council and Chair Lagarde at her subsequent press conference remain on the rise. On the latter, it could be a big disappointment for bulls otherwise.

Nothing other than the ECB gathering in the domestic calendar, whereas the usual weekly Claims are due across the pond.

What to look for around EUR

EUR/USD continues to trade in a side-lined mood near 1.0700 for the time being.

The pair’s recent multi-week recovery has been on the back of supportive ECB-speak, which continued to point at an initial rate hike as soon as in July, while the consensus view that the bond-purchase programme should end at some point in early Q3 has also lent legs to the European currency.

However, EUR/USD is still far away from exiting the woods and it is expected to remain at the mercy of dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence, while higher German yields, persistent elevated inflation in the euro area and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.

Key events in the euro area this week: ECB Interest Rate Decision (Thursday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Speculation of the start of the hiking cycle by the ECB as soon as this summer. Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro bloc. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is losing 0.01% at 1.0715 and a breach of 1.0627 (monthly low June 1) would target 1.0532 (low May 20) en route to 1.0459 (low May 18). On the other hand, immediate up barrier emerges at 1.0786 (monthly high May 30) seconded by 1.0933 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.0936 (weekly high April 21).

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold looks vacillating above $4,150

Gold alternates gains with losses below the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The yellow metal’s irresolute price action comes in response to a modest pullback in the US Dollar and a tepid recovery in US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin steadies at $82,000: The five forces crushing the Uptober rally

Crypto markets have remained under pressure so far in October, with Bitcoin (BTC) sliding below $80,000 earlier this week before recovering to around $82,000 on Friday, as macroeconomic headwinds and cooling demand weigh on the market.

The Fed just got a second hot inflation number. Here's what the diesel signal is really saying

The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a renewed inflation challenge after two consecutive reports showed price pressure intensifying across the US economy. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) confirmed accelerating consumer inflation, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed an even sharper rise in business costs. Behind both reports lies a common factor: energy prices.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.