EUR/USD is perched at fresh 2023 highs

EUR/USD has breached the early February highs and has gone on to hit its highest level since April 2022, as investors dumped the US Dollar on yet further data pointing to a pivot from the Federal Reserve later this year. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1048 and has traveled between a low of 1.0976 and a high of 1.1067, currently up 0.52% on the day.

Data this week has led markets to believe that their thesis is correct, that the Federal Reserve will pause in its tightening policy campaign after one last rate hike in May. Firstly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday came in at 5% year-on-year in March, down from 6% in February.

Then, on Thursday the easing inflationary pressures continues in data with the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand dropping 0.5% last month. In the 12 months through March, the PPI increased 2.7% which was the smallest year-on-year rise since January 2021 and followed a 4.9% advance in February. Additionally, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week. Consequently, Fed funds futures traders are now pricing for the Fed's benchmark rate to peak at 5.002% in June, from 4.830% now, before falling back to 4.278% in December.

Meanwhile, over in Europe, central bankers have been a touch more hawkish than their US counterparts. For instance, European Central Bank's Robert Holzmann backed another 50 bps move. However, the general consensus is that the ECB is set to deliver a 25 bps rate increase on May 4 and another 25 bps hike by mid-year to combat inflation.