EUR/USD trims some losses in a calm trading session
- EUR/USD edges up above 1.1650, but remains close to one-month lows, near 1.1620.
- The US Dollar holds recent gains despite moderate US inflation figures.
- The pair remains in a bearish channel with one-month lows at 1.1618 in sight.
EUR/USD posts minor gains on Wednesday, trading right above 1.1650 at the time of writing, but still close to one-month lows near 1.1620. The US Dollar maintains a moderate bullish bias in a calm market session, unfazed by the softer-than-expected US core Consumer Prices Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday.
Figures from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) revealed that price pressures remained fairly steady in December, against market hopes of an uptick in the core inflation. The US Dollar, however, maintained its mild bullish tone, as the data did not change the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy expectations. Futures market is practically fully pricing a steady interest rate decision in the late-January meeting, and the chances of a rate cut in March have dropped to 26% from nearly 40% one week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Market volatility remains subdued in Europe in the absence of key macroeconomic releases. In the US, Retail Sales data and an array of Fed speakers will be in focus, although traders will keep an eye on the US Supreme Court, which might rule on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs later on Wednesday.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.08% | -0.18% | -0.29% | 0.04% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.08% | -0.10% | -0.20% | 0.12% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.10% | -0.09% | 0.23% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | 0.29% | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.34% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.29% | |
| CAD | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.23% | -0.34% | -0.15% | -0.13% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.08% | -0.19% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.21% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | -0.07% | -0.18% | -0.29% | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: US CPI data failed to hurt the US Dollar
- The US Dollar maintains its moderate constructive tone intact, despite the softer-than-expected core CPI figure seen on Tuesday.
- Headline US inflation grew 0.3% pace in December and 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, while the core CPI slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% the previous month and grew at a steady 2.6% annual pace, against market expectations of 0.3% and 2.7% increases, respectively.
- The US ADP employment 4-week average report, on the other hand, revealed an 11.75K increase in the first week of 2026, following the previous 11K. This reading marks the fifth consecutive week with a net increase in jobs, which has contributed to easing concerns about the labour market and strengthens the case for steady Fed interest rates in the coming months.
- Also on Tuesday, the heads of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Canada (BoC), and nine other central banks released a statement showing their solidarity with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in reaction to the unprecedented attacks from US President Donald Trump. The central bankers defended the independence of their institutions as a cornerstone for price, financial, and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that they serve.
- Later on Wednesday, November's US Retail Sales are expected to show that consumption bounced up 0.4% after a flat performance in October, boosted by higher car sales. Excluding autos, sales of all other items are seen growing at a 0.4% pace, unchanged from last month.
- A slew of Fed speakers will also take the stage during the American session. The focus will be on Governor Stephen Miran, Trump's latest pick for the Board, and a vocal dove. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and New York Fed President John Williams will also meet the press on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD bears eye the 1.1615 support area
The EUR/USD pair treads water below the 1.1650 line, after pulling back from the 1.1700 area earlier this week. Technical indicators show a neutral-to-bearish tone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is practically flat on the 4-hour chart, showing a lack of momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 43, pointing to fading demand.
Price action remains trapped within a descending channel from late December highs. The intraday low is near 1.1635, and the one-month low of 1.1618 remains in the bears' sight. Further down, the confluence of the channel bottom and December 2 lows, right below 1.1600, is a key area.
Immediate resistance stands at the channel top, now around 1.1685, ahead of Monday's high, near 1.1700. Further up, the target is the January 6 high, in the area of 1.1740.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
