- EUR/USD depreciates as the US Dollar advances amid easing US-China tariff tensions.
- US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the United States and China reached a framework to implement the Geneva Consensus.
- The US Court of Appeals extended a temporary stay, allowing the government to continue enforcing Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
EUR/USD loses ground after registering gains in the previous two consecutive sessions, trading around 1.1400 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar receives support from easing tariff tensions between the United States (US) and China.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested, on Tuesday, potential resolutions with China and noted that both countries have reached a framework to implement the Geneva Consensus. While China’s Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said that communication with the United States has been rational and candid, he will report on a framework to Chinese leaders. However, officials from both sides will seek approval from their leaders before implementation, according to Bloomberg.
US Treasury yields are holding steady as traders adopt caution ahead of the upcoming inflation data. The CPI report is expected to provide insight into the economic impact of recent tariffs and broader inflationary trends. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds are standing at 4.01% and 4.46%, respectively, at the time of writing.
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point rate cut and brought borrowing costs to their lowest since November 2022. Moreover, the central bank also revised down its inflation projections for 2025 and 2026, indicating that it is nearing the end of its current easing cycle.
ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said on Tuesday, “We will take decisions meeting by meeting.” Must avoid complacency over inflation outlook. Must focus on keeping inflation expectations at 2%, Rehn added. ECB’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted that “we will remain pragmatic going forward on rates.” Villeroy also said that the central bank will go according to the data flow and be as agile as necessary.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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