EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1400 ahead of Eurozone HICP inflation data

EUR/USD depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its losses on technical correction.
European Union warned that Trump's new plan to double US tariffs on steel and aluminium could derail bilateral trade negotiations.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/USD edges lower after registering over 0.50% gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1420 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) recovers its ground on technical correction, despite growing concerns regarding stagflation in the United States (US). Traders will likely observe Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Focus will shift toward the release of the JOLTS Job Openings later in the North American session.

US President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to double import tariffs on steel and aluminium, effective on Wednesday, to build up pressure on global steel producers and intensify the trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. We're going to bring it from 25% to 50% - the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States," he said, per Reuters.

Moreover, the US Dollar attracted sellers after the closely watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index survey of the manufacturing sector signalled a third monthly decline in output in a row. The index eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 in April. This figure came in weaker than the expectation of 49.5.

The European Union (EU) expressed “strong” regrets over Trump's plan to double US tariffs on steel and aluminium, which could derail bilateral trade negotiations. The European Commission (EC) said on Saturday that Trump's tariffs decision "undermines ongoing efforts" to reach a deal, warning about "countermeasures", per BBC.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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