EUR/USD extends loses with ECB's Lagarde, Fed speakers on focus

EUR/USD has retraced previous gains on Wednesday, to extend its decline to one-week lows below 1.1600, trading at 1.1586 at the time of writing. The US Dollar (USD) resumed its uptrend in the early European trading session, with markets in a cautious mood ahead of the speeches of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials due later on the day.
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On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump rebuffed meeting requests by Democratic lawmakers from the previous day, saying that he will not meet them until the government reopens. Meanwhile, the shutdown enters its fourth week as the Senate failed to pass a funding resolution for the 11th time on Monday.

In the absence of key macroeconomic releases in the Eurozone and the US, the speeches of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos, and Fed officials will be the unique distraction for traders. These speeches, however, are unlikely to provide any new clues on the central banks' near-term monetary policies.

Daily digest market movers: Fed monetary easing hopes to limit US Dollar rallies

• The US Dollar lost momentum as the latest episode of the Sino-US trade war went into the back burner, and investors shifted their focus once again to the protracted US government shutdown and the prospects of a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• A survey by Reuters showed on Tuesday that most analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the October 28-29 meeting and a further quarter-point in December. 25 of 33 economists show concerns that the central bank might go too far with monetary easing and set a very low terminal rate by the end of next year.
• Another Reuters poll released on Wednesday showed unanimity, forecasting that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged at its October 30 monetary policy meeting. More than half of the surveyed experts – 45 out of 79 – expect that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at 2% through 2026.
• US President Trump affirmed on Tuesday that Republicans "will not be extorted" by Democrats to bend to their demands, which suggests that this government closure is likely to be one of the largest in history. Such an extended closure will likely take a toll on US GDP growth and undermine investors' confidence in the US Dollar.
• Earlier this week, Trump announced that he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea next week and that he expects to reach a fair deal. These comments have ditched fears of a US-China trade war, at least for now, and triggered a sharp sell-off in precious metals.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD extends losses below the 1.1600 support area

EUR/USD's upside attempts have been short-lived, and the pair resumed its decline on Wednesday's European session, breaching the 1.1600 support area. The pair remains on a bearish trend following the rejection at 1.1730 last week. Technical indicators are in negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is close but not yer ar oversold levels, and the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) remains well below the signal line.

With this in mind, the possibility of a retest of the October 9 and 14 lows in the area of 1.1545 remains on the table. Further down, the channel bottom, now around 1.1460, emerges as the next potential target. To the upside, the pair would need an unlikely rebound beyond Tuesday's highs, in the area of 1.1650 to shift the focus towards the October 17 high, at 1.1728. Further up, the October 1 high, around 1.1775, comes into focus.