EUR/USD: EUR retests 1.11 on ECB caution – Scotiabank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Thursday’s ECB policy decision yielded no surprises, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Narrower EZ/US yield differentials push EUR higher

“Rates were trimmed 25bps, as expected, and President Lagarde’s ‘data dependent, meeting by meeting’ approach to future policy adjustment suggests no rush to cut again. With only limited data available ahead of the next rate meeting in October, a December cut looks the most likely way forward from here.”

“The EUR caught a modest bid off the outlook and EZ yields firmed a little. That, plus the dip in US short rates around the Fed outlook today has driven 2Y bond spreads to –138bps, the narrowest since May 2023, helping the EUR retest the 1.11 area.”

“Solid gains yesterday for the EUR and a high close on the week are complemented by some reinvigorated, bullish DMI signals on the intraday and daily charts. A push above 1.1125 consolidation resistance would signal scope for additional EUR gains in the short term at least. Support is 1.1055 now.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD back to 1.3250, down modestly for the day

GBP/USD now comes under fresh downside pressure and recedes toward the mid-1.3200s on Tuesday, partially reversing the optimism seen at the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, Cable’s bearish tone follows the resumption of the upside traction in the Greenback, always amid the sharp rally in USD/JPY.

EUR/USD looks inconclusive in the low 1.1400s

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses in the 1.1420 region in the latter part of the NA session on turnaround Tuesday. The pair’s vacillating price action comes amid the lack of clear direction in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, market participants are expected to gear up for the upcoming key releases on the US docket and developments from the ECB Forum in Sintra.

Gold clings to daily gains beyond $4,000

Following multi-month lows near $3,950, Gold now manages to regain some composure and reclaim the area beyond the key $4,000 yardstick per troy ounce on Wednesday. Still, any meaningful recovery appears limited as a broadly firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields weigh on the yellow metal.

Ethereum: Sharplink makes first treasury purchase in 2026 amid ETH's fall from grace

Ethereum treasury firm Sharplink resumed accumulation of the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization last week after months on the sidelines. The Florida-based firm acquired 10,000 ETH last week at an average price of $1,611 per ETH, marking its first purchase since October. The move has pushed its holdings to 886,725 ETH worth roughly $1.4 billion at the time of writing.

Why a hawkish Bank of Japan could trigger the next Bitcoin sell-off

The Japanese Yen hits a 40-year low of 162.00 against the US Dollar, raising concerns about intervention or additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. BoJ may sell US Treasuries to buy back Yen, potentially pushing US bond yields higher and making Bitcoin less attractive to investors.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.