EUR/USD ends Thursday where it starts, recovering into 1.0660 after Fed-inspired backslide

EUR/USD slips on hawkish Fed but recovers Thursday to end the day flat.
Fed sees rates higher and longer, sending US Dollar up across the board.
PMI figures to cap off the economic calendar for the trading week.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The EUR/USD slid further down the charts on Thursday, testing into new six-month lows near 1.0617 before recovering from the bottom to close out the day near 1.0660 and now heads into the Friday market session with the Greenback (USD) taking a step back.

The Federal Reserve held benchmark interest rates at 5.5% as markets broadly expected on Wednesday, but the US central bank is seeing interest rates holding higher for longer than previously anticipated, and the Fed now only expects interest rates to cut by half a percent by the end of 2024.

Fed sees a longer rate cut schedule, bolstering US Dollar

With the hawkish outlook in the books, US equities declined and US Treasury yields spiked higher, sending the US Dollar index higher across the entire global currency space, and the Euro fell to a new low.

The EUR/USD pair is already decidedly bearish, having closed in the red for the past nine consecutive weeks. This week will only break the near-term trend if markets are able to push the Euro higher and hold ground before Friday's closing bell.

Friday's Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures are expected to twist, with the EU forecast to see a slight decline and a minor uptick in US numbers.

European PMI composite is slated to come in at 46.5 versus the previous 46.7, while the US side sees manufacturing rising from 57.9 to an even 48, and the services PMI component lifting from 50.5 to 50.6.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The EUR/USD is currently trapped into the 34-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and sitting on the bearish side of the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently parked just north of 1.0690.

The Euro is rising from Thursday's low of 1.0620, but the pair is still significantly off Wednesday's peak at 1.0737.

On the daily charts, the EUR/USD spun out a hammer candlestick, and technical indicators are starting to flash oversold conditions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicators are on the low end and threatening to turn bullish, and a recovery from here could see the EUR/USD set to make another challenge run at the descending trendline from July's swing high into 1.1250.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.0662
Today Daily Change	0.0002
Today Daily Change %	0.02
Today daily open	1.066

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.0753
Daily SMA50	1.0908
Daily SMA100	1.0885
Daily SMA200	1.0829

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.0737
Previous Daily Low	1.065
Previous Weekly High	1.0769
Previous Weekly Low	1.0632
Previous Monthly High	1.1065
Previous Monthly Low	1.0766
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.0683
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.0704
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.0628
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.0596
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0541
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.0715
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.0769
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.0802

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

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