EUR/USD edges higher to near 1.1050 following a dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed
- EUR/USD gains ground as the Fed is expected to deliver at least a 25-basis point rate cut in September.
- The US Dollar received support from July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data released on Friday.
- ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau favors the central bank considering a rate cut in September.
EUR/USD breaks its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.1050 during the Asian session on Monday. The upside of the EUR/USD pair could be attributed to the tepid US Dollar (USD) following the dovish sentiment surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the US July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index might have provided support for the Greenback and limited the upside of the pair.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% year-over-year in July, matching the previous reading of 2.5% but falling short of the estimated 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% year-over-year in July, consistent with the prior figure of 2.6% but slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.7%.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, a prominent hawk on the FOMC, indicated last week that it might be "time to move" on rate cuts due to further cooling inflation and a higher-than-expected unemployment rate. FXStreet’s FedTracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Bostic’s words as neutral with a score of 5.6.
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau stated on Friday, according to Bloomberg, that there are "good reasons" for the central bank to consider cutting its key interest rates in September. Villeroy de Galhau suggested that action should be taken at the upcoming meeting on September 12, noting that it would be both fair and prudent to decide on a new rate cut.
(This story was corrected on September 2 at 07:40 GMT to say, in the third paragraph, that "rated Bostic’s words as neutral with a score of 5.6", and not as Kashkari's words.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
