EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1770, focus on Jackson Hole

The European currency resumes the upside and lifts EUR/USD to new daily highs in the 1.1770 zone.

EUR/USD focused on Powell

EUR/USD returns to the positive territory at the end of the week and approaches the key hurdle in the 1.1770/80 band, area coincident with the 2-month resistance line and considered the last defence before a test of the 1.1800 neighbourhood.

Renewed weakness surrounding the dollar helps the pair refocusing on the 1.1800 mark. A breakout of the latter is expected to mitigate the selling pressure and to open the door to potential further gains.

The salient event on Friday will be the speech by Fed’s Powell on “The Economic Outlook” at the Jackson Hole event, always with the QE tapering in the centre of the debate among investors.

In the domestic calendar, France’s Consumer Confidence eased a tad to 99 in August (from 100) and German Import Prices rose 2.2% MoM and 15% YoY during July.

Across the pond, all eyes will be upon the PCE, seconded by Personal Income/Spending, trade figures and the final print of the U-Mich Index.

What to look for around EUR

The recovery in EUR/USD seems to have met initial and quite moderate hurdle in the proximity of 1.1780 for the time being, leaving intact the next target at the 1.1800 neighbourhood. The ongoing recovery in the pair from yearly lows tracks the improvement in the risk complex as well as the corrective downside in the buck. However, the re-affirmed dovish stance from the ECB (as per its latest meeting) is expected to keep spot under pressure despite the healthy economic recovery in the region, which in turn stays propped up by the high morale among market participants.

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and pace of the vaccination campaign. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections in September could bring some political effervescence to the scenario. Investors’ shift to European equities in the wake of the pandemic could lend extra oxygen to the single currency.

EUR/USD levels to watch

So far, spot is gaining 0.14% at 1.1768 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1804 (weekly high Aug.13) followed by 1.1830 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1908 (monthly high Jul.30). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1663 (2021 low Aug.20) would target 1.1612 (monthly low Oct.20 2020) en route to 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4 2020).