EUR/USD: Chance to potentially retest 1.1495 – UOB Group

Euro (EUR) could potentially retest 1.1495 against US Dollar (USD) or even break above this level; slowing momentum suggests 1.1530 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, outlook remains positive, but it remains to be seen if EUR can break clearly above 1.1530, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Outlook for EUR remains positive

24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR dipped to 1.1356 two days ago before recovering. Yesterday, when it was at 1.1425, we indicated the following: 'The recovery has gained some momentum, and EUR could test this week’s high, near 1.1455. A breach of this level is not ruled out, but the current momentum suggests a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. Any further advance is also unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1495.' Our directional call was correct, but EUR rose more than expected, almost reaching 1.1495 (high of 1.1494). It then pulled back from the high to close at 1.1444 (+0.24%). While upward momentum is slowing, EUR could potentially retest 1.1495 or even break above this level. That said, given the lack of strong momentum, any advance above 1.1495 is unlikely to reach the next major resistance at 1.1530. Support levels are at 1.1425 and 1.1395."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from Tuesday (03 Jun, spot at 1.1445). In that update, we revised our EUR outlook to positive, and we indicated that “the immediate levels to watch are 1.1495 and 1.1530.” Yesterday, Thursday, EUR popped to within one pip of 1.1495, pulling back quickly from 1.1494. Although upward momentum has not increased much further, the outlook for EUR remains positive. All in all, as long as the ‘strong support’ at 1.1365 (level previously at 1.1345) is not breached, EUR could rise further. However, it remains to be seen if it can break clearly above 1.1530."